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US-China AI Rivalry and Geopolitical Controls

Diverging approaches to frontier AI governance, supply chain verification, and digital infrastructure.

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Edouard Harris Jeremie Harris Misha Laskin Nathan Lambert Jonathan Siddharth Garrison Lovely Emad Mostaque Ray Dalio

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Oct 15, 2026

Columbia Business School 36th Annual Graham & Dodd Event with Li Lu '96, Founder and Chairman of Himalaya Capital

Columbia Business School Li expects commercial interdependence to outlast the geopolitical order currently being reshaped. Leaving the common market sacrifices efficiency, specialization, and access to trading partners, while barriers redirect commerce through …

Oct 14, 2026

The a16z Show Can Open Models Keep Up With OpenAI and Anthropic? | Nathan Lambert

Nathan Lambert Nathan Lambert’s organizing framework is that model progress reduces to three forms of capital — compute, data, and talent — and China is compute-starved with a comparable talent pool. He allows there might be a slight talent edge depending on who was where when AI got going. His compute anecdote: tell a top Chinese …

Nicholas Thompson Why Ray Dalio is Worried About an AI Bubble

Ray Dalio China’s advantage may lie less in winning the frontier-model contest than in deploying AI as infrastructure. Dalio says Chinese leaders treat AI like electricity, water, roads, or railways, then integrate cheaper systems into an industrial base …

Oct 9, 2026

No Priors Beam: The Great American Open Model with ReflectionAI Co-Founder and CEO Misha Laskin

Misha Laskin Chinese open models are simultaneously a major benefit to Western builders and a geopolitical distribution strategy. Laskin credits Chinese labs with sustaining the open ecosystem, while citing industrial-scale distillation, cheaper data, and state support …

Oct 2, 2026

Sourcery Annie Lamont: $14B Managed, 70+ Exits, 15 IPOs, 7x Midas Investor

Jonathan Siddharth O'Shea frames the US-China life-sciences race as an existential industrial risk, not a routine competitive cycle. She says roughly 50% of pharmaceutical companies’ external research dollars now go to China, whereas this was not happening five years ago, …

Oct 1, 2026

The Cognitive Revolution AI:AM: Was Trump-Xi Anything? What Counts as Utopia? + AWS GPUs Cost 3X & AI Diagnoses Rare Diseases

Edouard Harris The Trump-Xi contact matters less as détente than as a chance to install crisis machinery before an AI incident forces an “insane ask.” Edouard Harris welcomed a possible AI-risk hotline but warned that China has historically withheld nuclear hotlines as leverage. Without …
Jeremie Harris Verification startups could become a gating layer for frontier-AI revenue, but only if intelligence agencies vet their technology before a crisis. Even a system “50% better” than watching gigawatt-scale heat signatures could leave half a data center operating and save billions; …
Edouard Harris A shared transformer-MOE technology tree gives the US and China common warning signals, but it does not create common motives. China may interpret American safety proposals as attempts to preserve its lead, while genuinely costly actions—such as Chinese labs pacing …

高能量 Vol.236 Macro Talk 111 | China-U.S. Summit Talks, AI's Limits, and the Global “Reservoir” Logic of Capital

高能量 The core outcome of the China-U.S. summit talks was not a package of detailed agreements, but a top-level calibration of the framework for sensitive issues. 李丰 says the only clear quantitative result was a further 2-month extension, to Jan. 10, 2027, of the suspension arrangement for China-U.S. …

Sep 29, 2026

The Cognitive Revolution Obsolete or Irreplaceable? Garrison Lovely on Stopping the Race to Replace Human Labor

Garrison Lovely Lovely thinks the “but China” objection is weaker than commonly assumed and that a US slowdown could initially slow the entire race. China has used a “fast-follow” approach, roughly 3–9 months behind the US frontier, while the Chinese Communist Party’s preference for …

Sep 27, 2026

Moonshots Jensen Pushes Back on Doomers, Xi & Trump Talk AI, and “AI” Gets a Rebrand | #294 MOONSHOTS Live

Emad Mostaque The US-China governance discussion is framed around rebranding, mistrust and competing political fears. Peter says Washington rejects a globalist scheme and jokingly renames the field “supercollective intelligence.” Emad says the rename could …

Sep 20, 2026

CBS Sunday Morning Extended interview: Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang on fears about AI

CBS Sunday Morning On pace versus China: "We should go as fast as we can, but not faster than we should" — no unsafe shipping. If China cures cancer or leads in sustainable energy, "it's great for us"; America is "packing heat as a nation," with tech one of three …

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