GPU Depreciation and Cloud Market Shakeup

Oct 27, 2026

Shanghao Jin Market Overview — October 27, 2026

• Shanghao Jin In his view, lower token prices hurt the residual value of older GPUs but do not overturn the case that GPUs and compute remain scarce. He says a two- to three-year payback is still assured and cards can be used for five years; investors simply should not assume they will …
• He reads Anthropic’s slower revenue growth as a supply constraint, not a lack of customer demand. He cites Anthropic’s S-1, which attributes the slowdown in its revenue outlook to insufficient GPU supply: customer demand is strong, but …

Oct 25, 2026

Jordi Visser AI Bubble Burst? Bitcoin to Zero? Hedge Funds Wrecked? Sounds Like a Bottom is Near

• Jordi Visser Visser’s compute-demand thesis survives a 22% SMH drawdown, and he says Micron could reach $1,500 by the end of February. He quotes Musk saying, “We could rent out our compute several times over if we said yes to everyone,” and sees suppliers still raising …

Oct 24, 2026

The Cognitive Revolution AI:AM Highlights: Clean Neurons, Black October, the GPU Credit Crunch, and Buying the Supply Chain

• Evan Conrad The apparent hyperscaler price premium largely reflects flexibility rather than a durable neocloud cost advantage. Conrad contrasts reserved contracts with on-demand capacity at $11 or $15 an hour, which must cover idle inventory and customers’ ability to …

Oct 23, 2026

The a16z Show Amazon CEO: $220 Billion Still Can’t Meet AI Demand

• Ben Horowitz AWS intends to protect existing customers despite AI labs’ willingness to pay for scarce capacity. Ben Horowitz presses the economic temptation to replace established workloads with higher-paying labs; Jassy answers, “We’re not gonna …

Oct 22, 2026

Latent Space Why AI Compute Comes in Rectangles — Erik Bernhardsson, Modal

• Latent Space The GPU procurement market changed sharply in the past year: Modal went from hyperscaler spot capacity and one-year reservations to working with almost 25 clouds, signing three-plus-year deals with meaningful upfront payments, and building a four-person procurement desk and a ten-person bare-metal engineering team. Capacity is often sold in “three-year rectangles” starting months ahead, while real demand is bursty. Modal’s proposed advantage is …
• Erik Bernhardsson Bernhardsson says Modal is, to some extent, “effectively long GPU prices already” through locked-in reservations, but worries more about a price collapse than further spikes. Hardware prices eventually tend to fall; today’s scarcity rent flows mostly to NVIDIA and partly to neoclouds, while buyers who locked up …
• Latent Space He explains the neocloud growth model: presell five years of chips to a large buyer, take the contract to Wall Street to raise money, then buy the hardware—“pre-sell things that you haven’t even bought.” He names Endscale as an example of a company that went from nowhere to a pipeline worth hundreds of billions of dollars despite having …

Oct 21, 2026

168X 168X in Conversation with Jason Kam: Crypto & AI—How to Read This Cycle?

• Jason Kam For now, he is more comfortable buying cloud providers and hyperscalers than making another indiscriminate bet on semiconductors. He mentions Microsoft, Amazon, Google and cloud ETFs, while saying he would leave Oracle alone for now. That is not a call to hold …

1000x MARKET UPDATE: What Breaks First — Bitcoin, AI, or the Bond Market?

• 1000x The hosts agree that neocloud distress need not derail the broader AI trade; Jonah expects consolidation. His shale analogy is falling output prices meeting exhausted financing, followed by stronger operators buying distressed capacity. He calls …

Oct 17, 2026

All-In CoreWeave Crash, AI Trade Cracks, Anthropic IPO Red Flags, Bill Gates Doomer

• Ben Horowitz Ben Horowitz explained why he and Marc, Loudcloud pioneers, passed on the neocloud space: it can be “a very dangerous arbitrage business.” Bandwidth went from $1,500 per megabit in 1999 to $50 by 2001 — “if you borrowed money to get it, you’re dead.” The difference this time is …

Oct 16, 2026

Pitch The PM EP55 Token Prices Dropping on Model Shifts with Carmen Li, CEO of Silicon Data & Compute Exchange

• Doug Older GPUs can retain earning power beyond a simple depreciation schedule. Li sees three-year A100 contracts despite the architecture already being roughly four to six years old, and cites secondary prices of …

The Compound How OpenAI Could Cause a US Recession | TCAF 264

• The Compound A financing squeeze could strengthen Amazon, Alphabet and Microsoft while limiting independent infrastructure providers. Josh cites CoreWeave’s roughly 15% debt yield and argues corporate and consumer AI demand will persist. Eisman agrees hyperscalers are in a …

Oct 9, 2026

SemiAnalysis Ep. 037 - Who's Funding the $11 Trillion AI Buildout? (Capital Markets)

• Dan Nishball GPU residual value currently bears little resemblance to textbook depreciation because scarcity has overwhelmed performance-based obsolescence. One-year H100 rentals fell near $1.30 an hour in 2025, yet some buyers later renewed around $2.50 and current deals approach $3, close to …

Oct 8, 2026

The a16z Show Building the Cloud for AI Agents | AWS CEO Matt Garman

• Matt Garman AWS is allocating scarce accelerators across the ecosystem rather than selling them all to frontier labs. Although AWS could sell every available chip to a few large labs, it reserves capacity for startups and eventually says yes in some form to …

Oct 3, 2026

20VC Crusoe CEO: Why Everyone Gets GPU Depreciation & AI Energy Costs Wrong

• Chase Lochmiller Crusoe manages commodity risk by selling three products across the AI stack: “data centers, GPUs, and tokens.” Five-year GPU contracts with reliable customers provide payback and cash flow, shorter contracts carry higher margins and renewal risk, and …
• The interview’s sharpest challenge to consensus is that GPUs may remain economically useful far longer than investors assume. Crusoe depreciates chips over six years, yet Hoppers bought in 2023 now command higher usage prices than when new; older, slower chips can …

Oct 1, 2026

The Cognitive Revolution AI:AM: Was Trump-Xi Anything? What Counts as Utopia? + AWS GPUs Cost 3X & AI Diagnoses Rare Diseases

• Steve Hou Hyperscalers sustain GPU rental prices at least two to three times those of neo-clouds because enterprises are buying an integrated relationship, not a fungible chip-hour. SiliconData’s Steve Hou attributes the premium to analytics, safety, compliance, and customer stickiness—the computational equivalent of …

Sep 27, 2026

Sourcery 10 of The Wildest Hot Takes From the All-In Summit 2026

• Kent Draper Kent Draper of AIRIN says execution is the differentiator — and 2026 capacity is already sold out. As a vertically integrated neocloud owning its data centers, AIRIN just handed over the first phase of its large Microsoft deal; demand “far …

Sep 23, 2026

SemiAnalysis Ep. 033 - ClusterMAX 3.0 Is Here! Neoclouds Ranked (Neoclouds, GPUs)

• SemiAnalysis ClusterMAX 3.0 lands with a real shakeup: Nebius joins CoreWeave in the Platinum tier, Google Cloud joins Oracle in Gold, Azure slips to Silver, and AWS, Crusoe, and Together all fall into Bronze. SemiAnalysis ranked 77 providers this cycle, tracks 323 in its neocloud model, and has now interviewed over 200 end users — depth that makes …
• Sam Harshe The GPU market is in "ridiculous backwardation": buyers will pay almost anything for chips deliverable in weeks, while waiting a few months earns a big discount. Sam Harshe's warning is that this flatters everyone — "just about everyone in the industry looks like a genius right now... even if your …
• SemiAnalysis Old-GPU terminal value is resolving bullishly, against Dr. Burry's depreciation criticism: four-year H100 contracts are being signed today, and "OpenAI has never given up an A100" — chips from 2020. The mechanism is physical: GB300 racks run 140–200kW versus 30–40kW legacy facilities that can't host Vera Rubin, so those sites will likely …