Investors
1 Curated Dialogues
Flood
Key Views & Dialogues
How To Trade Crypto Cycles with Flood
Flood remains bullish on Bitcoin as debt and deficits make debasement “an inevitability,” while arguing that value is concentrating in stores of value, permissionless trading, and stablecoins. Perps could dominate options as Binance data shows over 92% of derivatives users trade them; HYPE, HOOD, app-level aggregation, and quantum risk are the main adoption catalysts and unresolved risks.
View summary (7)
- Flood is still long-term bullish Bitcoin and adding down here: the debt-and-deficit setup makes debasement “an inevitability,” and “I don’t think that changes just because it’s sold off 50%.” Drawdowns are for re-underwriting — “if your thesis is unchanged, well, guess what? You’re getting much better average entries” — with the long arc a transition from “hypervolatile 3x levered NASDAQ” to a gold-like safe haven. The only structural worry he names is quantum risk.
- The honest miss: nation-state hoarding hasn’t happened — governments like Germany instantly sell seized assets while central banks stockpile gold in a straight line. “That just clearly hasn’t taken place. I think we’ve been very wrong on that” — but there’s no expiry on the thesis, and Avi’s bottom signal is exactly the current disinterest: when people move on, that’s “the most bullish time period to start buying, at least on a 6 to 12 month horizon.”
- Value coalesces to three things only: monetary store of value (BTC, “arguably Ethereum”), permissionless trading (Hyperliquid, Solana), and stablecoins. Everything else: “all we’ve figured out is how to make gambling slightly better,” and most tokens of the last five years were “not even innovative ways to try and scam retail.”
- “Perps will dominate options volume over the next decade — I will die on this hill.” The evidence: of Binance’s 400M+ KYC accounts, over 92% of derivatives users traded perps vs 8% options — “one of the largest consumer preference studies in history.” Retail wants leverage, not convexity; options fragment liquidity by strike and duration, which is where Jane Street’s edge lives. The CFTC clearing a path for US perps plus Robinhood’s 7.5% of US equity options volume frames the trade.
- The operating playbook: have capital when other people don’t, and hold multiple levers per position (spot + short future + options). Specimens: the 10/10 depeg, where Marinade and other LSTs traded at 60 cents from Binance liquidations — “10% in maybe a day”; shorting UST at 95 cents for ~20-to-1 instead of being scared to short Luna; and the Hyperliquid airdrop, where the market implied 8% odds of $60 against their 20–25%, on a modeled $1 of buyback ≈ $20 of market cap.
- Apps accrue the value, not chains: US retail says “I trade through Robinhood,” never “on NASDAQ,” and crypto’s forced venue choice will be aggregated away by super-apps. “Solana will not own the customer relationship.” Avi’s dark corollary: most crypto-specific apps — $500B+ of altcoin market cap — go to zero.
- The 2026–27 book: long spot BTC (no long-dated options paying theta) into a “violent snapback” correcting the QQQ and gold ratios; own both HYPE and HOOD for the perp adoption wave (he owns HOOD and has been adding into the nuke); don’t fade AI — “you are still going to continue to get paid to be delusionally bullish”; and don’t short alts down here — zombies drift and never pay you. “You really have to pick your spots shorting alts” (Celestia at dollars, not cents, was the spot).