Why Crypto Will Grow 10x in The Next Decade | Dan Tapiero

Summary

• The headline call: crypto grows 10x to $50 trillion by 2035. Tapiero rebranded 10T to 50T Holdings because the original 2019 call — $300B ecosystem to $10T, a 30x — is halfway done at today’s ~$4-5T, and “calling for a double from 5 trillion to 10 trillion is not very interesting.” New math: Bitcoin $20T (“Bitcoin at a million dollars… a 10x or now a 12x roughly from here. Not a big deal”), ETH/Solana/alts $10T, crypto equity $20T — “potentially a little low.”
• The tradeable bottom call: $60k was the flush, sub-$50k unsustainable. Markets have “absorbed a huge amount of bad news” — Brent at 115-120, war, Qatari gas offline — yet Bitcoin holds ~$70k through flaming-Middle-East weekends. “I really don’t see us being able to go down below 50,000 for any demonstrable period of time”; buying at 70 on a 5-10 year horizon offers “a 5 to 10x… with very controlled downside.”
• The valuation absurdity underpinning the buy: Bitcoin at $70k is roughly unchanged over five years while stablecoins went from essentially zero in January 2021 to $33T traded last year, and DeFi revenue from zero to $100-200M per month. “There is no way” the core asset should stay disconnected from that growth.
• The structural trade is growth capital, not venture. 50T claims to be the only growth-stage PE fund exclusively in crypto; the venture-to-growth deal ratio is “98 to two,” the investable universe (>$50M revenue) grew from ~20-30 companies in 2019 to ~150, and the investors who came in in ‘21 (Silver Lake, Thoma Bravo, Temasek, Tiger, Coatue) got “blown up” by FTX-era wrecks. He’s passed on 350-400 deals, pays max 5-10x revenue, and says founders are still trying to raise at “summer of ‘25 when Bitcoin was 125,000” valuations, which are only just now coming in.
• It feels like a bear but “we’ve won”: alts down 90%, Bitcoin halved in 5 months — yet Polymarket is raising at $20B, ~50x revenue (“that’s not really a bear phase”), DAS had its largest turnout ever, and institutionalization since “Larry Fink’s about-face in the summer of ‘23” means the important part of the space is flourishing while the rest fractures.
• Americanization of crypto: US share of world exchange volume doubled from 7% to 15% in 18 months under the new administration — Avi said he had companies being sued by the SEC 18 months ago that are public today — and “we could easily be 50% within the next 5 to 10 years.”
• The forward thesis: “blockchain is the money of the autonomous agentic future.” Crypto may have been built for AI agents, not humans — “it’s code talking to code” — and Kraken CEO Arjan Sethi says all his personal assets will be agent-managed within 12 months, which Tapiero calls “actually quite reasonable,” likening today’s fear to late-’90s reluctance to put a credit card on the internet.

Deep dive

1. From 10T to 50T: the math behind the 10x decade

• The origin story: in 2019 the whole ecosystem — Bitcoin, ETH, alts, plus all the equity — was worth $300B, and Tapiero called $10T in ten years, a 30x. Coming from the macro hedge fund world, “I’d never even imagined or envisioned a 30X return on anything ever… None of my buddies are going to believe that I called for it. So I’m like, we got to put that in the name of the fund.” Today’s ~$4-5T is halfway, with the fund running to 2031.
• The refresh, about a year ago at fund five: for 2025-2035, Bitcoin to $20T (“Bitcoin at a million dollars… a 10x or now a 12x roughly from here. Not a big deal”), ETH and alts including Solana $10T, and $20T for all equity in the space — “potentially a little low.” Total: $50T against $5T today. “I’m not calling for a 30x now, but I do think that the space will grow by 10 times over the next 10 years.”
• The frame he gives newcomers: in the ’90s the internet was “the digitization of ideas and information”; crypto is “the digitization of money and value” — “we’re really in the first inning” of all value and money moving on chain.

2. Feels like a bear phase — but “we’ve won”

• The paradox Tapiero keeps circling: Bitcoin down 50% in five months, alts still down 90%, no momentum — yet Polymarket is raising at a $20B valuation, roughly 50x revenue: “that’s not really a bear phase when a company can raise at 50 times revs.” The space has “fractured” into selectivity, and “the important part of the space is flourishing.”
• From his DAS panel with Raoul and Brett on what institutionalization gained or lost: “Look, we’ve won.” He was never in the banks-are-going-away camp — the goal was always TradFi and crypto converging, kicked off by the ETFs and “Larry Fink’s about-face in the summer of ‘23,” now visible in Goldman and Morgan Stanley stablecoin moves (the hosts’ framing of the bifurcation upsetting crypto natives).
• His conviction marker: Blockworks told him this is their largest turnout ever, and “this conference will be even bigger next year… regardless of bear phase.”

3. The growth-capital vacuum is the structural trade

• 50T is, as far as he knows, the only growth-stage PE fund in the world exclusively in crypto — companies doing $50M+ revenue, paying no more than 5-10x revenue, targeting a 5-8x over a 10-year fund life (“I’m not a venture guy. So 1000X is not for us”). The investable universe went from 20-30 companies in 2019 to ~150 today, and the venture-to-growth deal ratio is “98 to two” — successful venture projects will need growth capital and there’s almost nobody to supply it.
• Why the competition vanished: the investors who came in in ‘21 — Silver Lake, Thoma Bravo, CPPIB, Temasek, Tiger, Coatue — and “they all were blown up or damaged by some of the nonsense”: FTX, Sequoia losing $400 million, BlockFi. His warning to founders: “You don’t bring in someone like Silver Lake as a long-term partner at 100 times revenue… The founders need to be reasonable.”
• The discipline in practice: passed on 350-400 deals in five years, now sitting on fresh fund-five capital while some founders still want to raise capital at “summer of ‘25 when Bitcoin was 125,000” valuations — “it’s just not okay. So we wait.” Asked if 60k Bitcoin is finally bringing valuations in: “Only just now, yes.” On publics: Coinbase at 7x is “way too cheap,” Circle’s $20-25B is “not unreasonable at all” (down 20% that day “on some nonsense”), Gemini “a little disappointing” but post-house-cleaning “tabula rasa.”

4. Revenue must pick a lane: token or equity

• One host’s challenge — Hyperliquid runs enormous revenue but is only a token; are tokens and equity separate forever? Tapiero’s answer: the space is resolving this now (the Aave debates), and the rule is clean delineation — “you can’t invest in a token and then have the revenue accrue to the equity.” Either works, but traditional investors prefer equity “because there’s law around it… lots of case law.”
• On hype itself, genuine respect: the token “has held up really well given the macro backdrop,” with oil and gold trading massive weekend volumes on it — “really hats off to them.” He’s not an investor (“we generally only invest in equity”) but “I would like to be at some point,” with the option to do maybe two or three once revenue accrual clarifies.

5. The bottom call: $60k was the flush, sub-$50k doesn’t stick

• Unpacking his tweeted “tell”: markets have “priced in a lot of bad news” — Brent traded to 115-120, a year and a month of war, panic over Qatari gas offline forever — yet the Nasdaq didn’t close down and Bitcoin “moved a thousand dollars” over a Middle-East-in-flames weekend. Holding ~$70k, “60,000 was a sort of flush panic moment,” and “I really don’t see us being able to go down below 50,000 for any demonstrable period of time.” Buy at 70 on a 5-10 year view: “Do I think you have the chance to make a 5 to 10x? I do… with very controlled downside.”
• The absurdity argument: $70k Bitcoin is “just about an unchanged price for 5 years” against a night-and-day space — stablecoins essentially zero in January 2021 versus $33 trillion traded last year, DeFi revenue zero then versus $100-200M a month now. “There is no way that the price of Bitcoin … is going to stay disconnected from that growth.” “Every cryptocurrency, everything. It’s all a derivative of the Bitcoin code.”
• Rotation inside the complex: in the last two months Solana’s share of stablecoins has “completely exploded” — from practically zero-to-10% up to almost 30%, while ETH slipped from over 50% at the start of the year.
• The Americanization kicker: US exchange volume share (Coinbase, Kraken, Gemini) doubled from 7% to 15% in 18 months. Avi noted that he had companies being sued by the SEC 18 months ago that are public today. With the world’s deepest capital markets, “we could easily be 50%… within the next sort of 5 to 10 years.”

6. Crypto may have been built for AI agents, not humans

• The forward thesis, delivered as the thing listeners most need to hear: “blockchain is the money of the autonomous agentic future” — already happening via X402. He cites a piece (Haseeb of Dragonfly, or Meltem — he corrects himself both ways) arguing crypto “maybe wasn’t even really built for humans because it’s very complex… maybe blockchain really was built for these AI agents. It’s code talking to code.” Fifteen years in, DeFi still strikes him as “almost alien.”
• The concrete marker: Kraken CEO Arjan Sethi says within 12 months all his personal assets will be managed by an autonomous agent — Haseeb’s pushback: “I think you’re too fast on this, Arjan.” Tapiero sides with Sethi: “actually quite reasonable,” the same moment as late-’90s fear of typing a credit card into the internet. Agentic infrastructure “is what we’re investing in.”