Summary

Jonah sees post-election Bitcoin as an ETF-like flow event that crypto-native capital cannot fully front-run. His scenario tree spans $500,000-$1 million BTC if a US strategic reserve triggers sovereign copycats, roughly $250,000 if regulatory clarity unlocks 1%-2% wealth-management allocations, and $60,000 if Trump does not deliver on crypto and appoints another hostile SEC. “The risk/reward is so skewed to the upside right now.”
Avi agrees the bull market is unfinished but treats the run toward $100,000 as a tactical decision point. Bitcoin rallies have historically run three to four weeks, sometimes five, before pausing; after coming “very far, very fast,” his best guess was a sell-off before $100,000, followed by $100,000 eventually failing to act as resistance. “The first phase is the excitement, and the second phase is the reality.”
Their exit framework combines politics, MVRV, and a precise definition of alt season. Jonah would reserve major cycle-top selling for MVRV around 6—versus roughly 2.5 during the episode and 1 or lower near bottoms—while Avi watches for two to three weeks in which alts rally euphorically as BTC stalls. That is when to “clip some profits,” preserving cash for a possible $100,000-to-$75,000 or $80,000 retracement and alts falling perhaps 70%.
Current participation still looked early rather than terminal. BTC dominance was rising, dips were being bought, IBIT flows were large, and Avi’s non-crypto friends had not yet resumed asking which meme coin could 100X as they did in 2021. Jonah called the market “inning two or three”; both rejected PNUT mania as a top signal and Avi’s categorical call was, “We’re not done yet.”
The alt market is selective enough that beta alone is no longer a strategy. DOGE doubled and XRP’s SEC-relief trade arrived late; SUI and Cardano outperformed, while DePIN and NEAR lagged, ORDI and STX did poorly, and ETH and SOL did not move much relative to BTC. Jonah recommended putting 40%-80% of a crypto portfolio into BTC and personally kept only 20% as an active book because he lacked confidence. Avi separately said, “I’m just not seeing the ball clearly outside of Bitcoin and Solana.”
The structural bull case extends from lower miner selling to institutional and geopolitical adoption. Avi argued professionalized miners now sell forward and are less useful as a supply signal; Jonah floated a “double halving” because the block subsidy fell while AI-related income might reduce operational BTC sales. Avi also cited a Tether-financed oil cargo that likely settled two weeks faster as evidence that reorganized banking lines could push crypto deeper into global trade.
Both hosts have shifted from maximum exposure toward separating permanent holdings from trading risk. Avi was nearly always 100% net-long crypto from 2017 through the 2021 peak, but now regards 50%-60% of net worth as enough to pursue enormous upside because he has “too much to lose.” His standing construction is 50% in assets never touched and 50% traded, with profits swept into long-term holdings; in one example, a 50% crypto allocation becomes 35% untouched and 15% actively traded.

Deep dive

1. The breakout is intact, but $100,000 is a tactical decision point

With BTC approaching $90,000 on air, Jonah felt “vindication after a very long period of waiting” and said he would not sell “a penny’s worth of crypto until after Inauguration Day.” His priority was buying any pullback and adding fiat for a momentum trade.
Avi’s caution was about speed, not direction: Bitcoin had come “very far, very fast,” and buyers from $50,000 were nearing a 2X in three months. Historically, he said, major BTC legs tend to run three to four weeks—sometimes five—before consolidation or a meaningful decline.
Avi could imagine $100,000 within a month, yet saw little practical difference between selling at $90,000 and $100,000. His best guess: sellers appear before the round number, creating a pullback, and $100,000 consequently does not become the durable resistance everyone expects.

2. Politics determines whether BTC stops at $120,000 or breaks the stratosphere

Avi reduced the rally to two engines: enthusiasm for Trump’s deregulation, stimulus, and inflationary potential; and Trump’s campaign-level support for crypto. General risk-asset strength might carry BTC toward $120,000, but campaign promises alone would not support the larger targets.
For $200,000, Avi wanted actual evidence—a serious bill, movement toward a strategic reserve, or another sign that Bitcoin was becoming a geopolitical asset. Jonah countered that Trump could not implement policy before January 20 and expected meaningful action no earlier than spring. Avi said the rally would end if the hope failed, such as a ruling that ruled out the strategic reserve or a new SEC going after a crypto project.
Jonah’s maximal scenario was a US reserve acquiring one million BTC. His target in that case was $500,000-$1 million because other countries would likely copy the US, producing “the mother of all parabolic rallies” while legitimizing Bitcoin as an alternative reserve asset.
His middle case required no imminent reserve: fire Gensler, release Ross Ulbricht, drop lawsuits, and establish a friendly framework. Wealth managers controlling trillions could then approve 1%-2% client allocations, potentially supporting $250,000. Jonah said that, based on conversations with major crypto asset managers, those calls had apparently already begun. Outright failure to deliver, Ross remaining in prison, and another hostile SEC appointment could send BTC “straight back down to 60K.”

3. Sell signals must preserve dry powder without forfeiting the cycle

Avi’s recurring pattern is “the excitement” outrunning “the reality,” followed by a nasty snapback. A move from $100,000 to $80,000—or even $70,000 near the breakout—should be bought, but an investor already fully allocated at the high would have no capacity to exploit alts potentially falling 70%.
Jonah’s cycle-top indicator is MVRV at roughly 6, versus about 2.5 during the episode and 1 or less near cycle bottoms. Because realized value rises when large buyers transact at higher prices, he views MVRV as dynamic: sovereign accumulation would mechanically lift the eventual exit threshold.
Avi’s shorter-horizon alarm is not simply “alts go up.” His definition of alt season is two to three weeks of euphoric alt gains while BTC does nothing—evidence that capital is leaving Bitcoin and moving down the risk curve. That is the point to “clip some profits.”

4. Flows and retail behavior still argue against a terminal top

None of Avi’s immediate warnings had appeared: BTC dominance was climbing, every dip found buyers, and ETH and SOL’s muted response suggested new money was still concentrating in Bitcoin. Jonah suspected IBIT accounted for a meaningful share of the FOMO because its inflows were “massive.”
Avi’s friends were congratulating him but had not repeated their 2021 questions about which meme coin might 100X. He interpreted their embarrassment and fear—“I remember what happened in ’21”—as constructive latent demand. Jonah’s older, wealthier circle was already asking whether buying near $90,000 resembled buying oil at $120 a barrel.
The timing reinforced their optimism: Trump’s victory supplied a “perfectly timed injection of hope” after rate cuts, a managed landing, and resilient growth. Jonah also noted that October through December of every halving year seems bullish “like clockwork,” encouraging Bitcoin’s quasi-preordained mythology.

5. Alt selection matters because market-wide beta has fractured

Avi emphasized dispersion: memes led while DePIN lagged; DOGE doubled, but SOL had not gained dramatically more than BTC. Newer coins such as SUI performed well, as did Cardano, while Bitcoin-adjacent ORDI and STX failed to respond.
Even closely related memes separated: BONK rose 27% while WIF fell 1%. GOAT became the first Pump.fun token to reach $1 billion and secured a Binance listing, yet NEAR barely moved. The conclusion was not that alts were weak, but that flows had become idiosyncratic.
DOGE was Avi’s “reasonably obvious” post-election trade, though both hosts admitted undersizing or missing it. XRP was another logical SEC-relief asset because it had endured delistings and restrictions, but its outperformance arrived later than Avi expected.
Ahead of NVIDIA earnings on the 20th, Avi expected AI tokens to strengthen, naming RENDER—already nearly 2X—Arweave, NEAR, and TAO as candidates to outperform into the event. Jonah, lacking equivalent conviction, kept only 20% in an active book; he had recommended that people allocate 40%-80% to BTC and reserve the rest for active trading.

6. Bull-market narratives create both opportunity and manipulation

Avi warned that when people have money and are willing to buy, a 15-tweet promotional thread can move a token: someone can establish a 10X leveraged position, publish a compelling narrative, then sell into the resulting 25% rally. He avoided such threads because “even the appearance of impropriety” could damage his reputation.
Jonah saw paid shills and newly funded project-marketing budgets as evidence that the alt bull cycle was beginning, not ending. He placed the market around “inning two or three” and stage three of Jason Yanowitz’s four-stage framework; inning eight would feature scams and wallets being emptied across the timeline.
PNUT became their cleanest specimen of meme logic: Jonah bought it because the squirrel fit a political meme about government overreach, but expected it eventually to collapse like BODEN. Avi resisted the expiration thesis—death can revive memes—and insisted, “Don’t fight the peanut.” Both nevertheless agreed PNUT was not a top signal.

7. Bitcoin’s fundamentals are broadening beyond price reflexivity

Avi cited a Tether post describing an oil supermajor buying crude from a major trading house in a Tether-denominated, Tether-financed transaction that probably settled two weeks faster. He viewed it as an early example of crypto filling gaps as sanctions and banking relationships reorganize global trade.
Avi’s reserve-currency case was partly structural and partly reflexive: as Bitcoin rises, crypto holders become richer and fund efforts that make the asset more pervasive. “People like you and me are sitting here pumping our bags,” while larger holders do the same at institutional scale.
Miner behavior may also be less bearish than in prior cycles. Avi said professionalized miners sell more BTC forward and no longer panic-dump as predictably; Jonah speculated about a “double halving,” with lower issuance plus AI-related revenue potentially reducing the need to sell BTC for operating expenses.

8. Crypto’s derivatives include HOOD, COIN, Meta, and Puerto Rico housing

COIN was near its all-time high around $320, but Jonah doubted crypto equities could match BTC or DOGE’s asymmetry; Coinbase might triple over two or three years, though not easily. If applying large leverage, he preferred crypto equities because he expected a smoother ride.
Avi particularly liked HOOD: Robinhood charged roughly 35 basis points for crypto, still compared favorably with Coinbase, and rising markets should increase engagement. At the time, Gold offered a 1% deposit bonus paid over two years plus roughly 4.5% on cash; Avi said Robinhood offered up to $2.5 million of FDIC insurance.
Outside direct crypto exposure, Avi named VRT and GEO and separately said Netgear was doing well. While disclaiming technical expertise, he described an AI-data-center communications and uptime thesis without making the ticker/entity link clear. Jonah’s favorite was Meta: “never bet against the Zuck,” given its models, training data, execution, and lower market capitalization than Nvidia, Apple, or Microsoft.
Avi framed Puerto Rico housing as crypto beta through Act 60: qualifying residents could pay zero capital-gains tax through 2035 and roughly 4% business income tax, while the primary-residence requirement met constrained high-end supply. He also cited roughly $2.5 billion of development and said he owned two Puerto Rico houses, a New York apartment, and a hotel investment. His $1.2 million 2021 house could, he estimated, sell for $2.2-$2.5 million because someone saving $5 million in tax might overpay by $1 million.

9. The winning portfolio separates conviction from the urge to trade

Both hosts acknowledged that wealth preservation had changed their risk tolerance. Jonah no longer wanted a bad trade to force his family into a smaller house; Avi, once comfortable with permanent maximum exposure, now said, “I’ve got too much to lose.”
From 2017 through the 2021 peak, Avi rarely spent more than a week below 100% net-long crypto. He still makes very large bets when he is exceptionally confident, but ordinarily considers 50%-60% enough: a 10X on half his net worth would still transform the outcome.
Avi cautioned that BTC falling 70% does not limit an active trader to a 70% loss: poor trading can turn it into 90%. His preferred architecture is 50% in permanent holdings and 50% traded, continually sweeping profits into BTC, ETH, or SOL and never touching them again.

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