Steve Cohen and Jawad Mian at Sohn 2025

Summary

• Cohen’s base case is slowing growth, not recession — but he puts recession odds at ~45%, “not insignificant.” Adding the tariffs, the 10% rate, and sectoral tariffs, he now sees a likely 14–17% rate (down from his earlier 16–20% estimate after China’s capitulation, which surprised him — “it basically capitulated”). Next year’s growth: “one and a half percent maybe lower — okay but not phenomenal.”
• He doesn’t think the Fed will act right away because it’s still worried about tariff-driven inflation — so the question becomes what multiple to put on slower numbers. With growth slowing and “multiples being on the higher side,” that’s “kind of a mix that doesn’t give you much upside.”
• His tell for whether the rally is real: watch how the market reacts when the data turns down. “If the markets hold up when the data turns down then you got to go wow, what’s going on here. I’m not convinced that’s going to happen.” He sees a possible retrace toward the lows — 10–15%, “not a calamity” — with what Trump did recently raising the floor and perhaps eliminating the dire scenario. View: sort of a trading-range, sideways market — “markets don’t have to go up every year.”
• Quick-hit and worth its weight: “Right now the market feels toppy.” And the regime message he’s drilling into his PMs after a 2024 where many had years in the 50–75% range relative to their normal average: “what worked in the past is not going to work this year” — keep the bar higher, and be careful with tariff-exposed, data-dependent names that have rallied back significantly.
• On process under pressure, the Mets owner reaches for baseball: great hitters go 0-for-20 and it’s fine if they’re hitting the ball hard — “if your process is consistent and you believe in your process,” slumps are normal. Order of trust when noise gets loud: analysis first (“it all comes back to facts”), then pattern recognition from 47–48 years of trading — markets “rhyme.”
• A year off the screens and turning 69, Cohen is spending on joy over P&L: the Mets are “not a profitable venture — no one would run a sports team the way I’m running this,” plus a casino-license bid with Hard Rock for a hotel and 5,000-seat music venue by the ballpark. Closing self-assessment: “I consider myself irrelevant. It’s about everything else.”

Deep dive

1. Not a recession — but 45% odds, and multiples matter

• Cohen opens by admitting the tape moved his answer: “if you asked me that question a week ago… I might have given you a slightly different answer” — China’s capitulation was “a little bit of a surprise.” Base case: no recession yet, but significant slowing growth, with recession odds around 45%.
• Adding the tariffs, the 10% rate, the sectoral tariffs, and whatever happens with China, he says the rate will probably land at 14–17% (he’d previously figured 16–20%). Growth next year “in the one and a half percent maybe lower range,” and he doesn’t think the Fed will act right away — still worried about tariff inflation. “Then the question becomes what kind of multiple do you put on these numbers?”

2. If the data turns down, watch the reaction

• The speed of the rebound is unusual — “the closest thing might have been the pandemic.” His signal: “I want to see when the data turns down how the market’s going to react — that’ll tell me a lot about whether we’re priced correctly. I’m not convinced” it holds.
• The bounded downside: possibly back toward the lows, 10–15% — “not a calamity” — because what Trump did recently “raises the floor” and perhaps eliminates the dire scenario. Verdict: sort of a trading range for a while. “Markets don’t have to go up every year… when you look back in history, markets can go sideways, and that’s perfectly normal.”
• His message to PMs coming off a phenomenal 2024 — many had years in the 50–75% range relative to their normal average: “we’re in a different regime and what worked in the past is not going to work this year.” Keep the bar higher; be careful with tariff-impacted, data-dependent names that “have rallied back significantly.”

3. Analysis first, then 47 years of pattern recognition

• When noise gets loud, the order is: “it all comes back to facts, or what you perceive to be facts” — then pattern recognition from “47, 48 years” of trading. Moments “may not be exactly the same but, as they say, they rhyme.”
• On self-doubt, the baseball frame: his players go 0-for-20 “and yet it’s okay because they’ve been hitting the ball hard — they just got unlucky.” The only refuge is process: “if your process is consistent and you believe in your process,” slumps — even after two bad days amid a phenomenal run — are “perfectly normal.”
• On post-2024 pressure: “you say thank you for an environment that was fairly easy to make money,” then get pragmatic. “I don’t create the world, I got to live in the world” — if the world presented is more difficult, lower your expectations.

4. What holds talented investors back — and what holds him up

• One limiting belief he sees: people hit a number and decide they’re done, versus those “constantly adapting, evolving, learning” — plus the voices saying “what do you need it for?” from people who may have “never done it” and don’t know what taking it to the next level is like. The trap is “notions in your head that somewhere you learned that may not be true.”
• The private-life edge, stated bluntly: “I have such little stress at home” — a great second marriage (the first was “my blue period”). Stress at work plus stress at home is hard to manage: “you’re a human being — how much stress can anybody take?”

5. A year off the screens: “irrelevant” as self-assessment

• With 69 approaching, “time is not forever” — the theme is spending it deliberately. The Mets are the case study: “it’s not a profitable venture — no one would run a sports team the way I’m running this… it’s a little insane” — but it makes millions of people happy, and he wants a World Series. Next: trying to win the casino license and building a hotel plus 5,000-seat music venue with Hard Rock by the ballpark.
• The quick hits carry the residue: the market “feels toppy”; preparation is the unskippable step; a first drawdown is “a badge of honor”; his defining habit — “I’m relentless… I’m just tenacious, I can’t help it.” And after saying his dad taught him to be humble, he closes: “it’s not about me anymore… I consider myself irrelevant. It’s about everything else.”