SpaceX: Start of the Next Megabubble or End of the Rally?

Summary

• The biggest IPO ever: SpaceX priced at $135 and printed $177 within 35 seconds — a $1.77 trillion debut that held its highs. Avi’s core claim is that the 94x-revenues handwringing “doesn’t matter at all”: in “the new age finance,” a mega-trend company is “safe until you prove to the market that you can’t deliver,” citing Nvidia’s ~45x price-to-sales at $47 in 2023 that compressed as demand exploded. “Don’t short assets that have the potential to conquer the world… Bears consistently die.”
• Jonah’s structural read: SpaceX is “a low float high FDV meme coin with huge inflows rather than outflows coming” — the FT tallies forced index buying of roughly eight yards by day 5, one more by day 10, and five more by day 15 — so “do not short this thing.” Elon is “the best in the world at achieving the lowest cost of capital”: “It’s trading at $2 trillion because he said it was worth $2 trillion and people just sort of bought it there.”
• The trade: Avi expects down 25% first — an “airdrop trade” shape — and calls $135 “a screaming buy,” worth an 8-10% position for “a quick 50% flip” (scale ~142, resell 160-170). Jonah would neither buy nor sell; his playbook is his Facebook trade — wait 3-6 months for the insider-unlock dump, then buy, as he did FB at $18-19 before the run to 700.
• The contrarian macro call: OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will be bearish for the indexes — unprofitable, so excluded from the Nasdaq, they’ll pull money out of AI-adjacent Mag 7 names; “the indexes, by virtue of construction, are not going to do well.” Exhibit A from today: every other space stock (Rocket Lab, Virgin Galactic) fell ~30% on SpaceX’s debut as the listing sucked liquidity out of the theme.
• Avi still prefers chips over SpaceX: going from $1.7T to $3T is hard, while Intel (~$600B) “could still get to one trillion” after Google’s deal to buy 3 million TPUs from it; SanDisk is pushing all-time highs. He’s redeploying his 50% cash, rebuying uranium, and watching Kevin Warsh’s first Fed meeting — 99% chance nothing happens, but a confident hike-cycle tilt would mean “we’re back to where we were.”
• Crypto lightning round: L1 infrastructure was “maybe the biggest grift of a lifetime” — Aptos “a complete grift from the start,” Solana the exception. His exit rule from the XMR/ZEC trade: after a massive five-standard-deviation news move, close out every trade on that asset; if losing, rejigger it, because news moves revert. HOOD over HYPE — “I’m in Hood until 1,000 bucks”; Hype is “not a 10-bagger for me anymore.”
• The through-line for retail: get good at something instead of aping — collectibles ride the boomer-to-Gen-Z-and-millennial wealth transfer, active beats passive in “a decade of hedge funds,” and “P&L is a disease of the mind” — trade with the memory of a goldfish, and avoid mobile unless necessary.

Deep dive

1. “Doesn’t matter at all” — 94x revenues in the age of mega trends

• The biggest IPO ever: SpaceX priced at $135 and printed $177 within 35 seconds — a $1.77 trillion debut that held its highs with little supply coming online. Avi’s frame, straight from crypto: “So many people are getting sidetracked by the fact that SpaceX is trading at 94x revenues. Doesn’t matter… you’re safe until you prove to the market that you can’t deliver.”
• His precedent is Nvidia in 2023: at $47 it carried a ~45x price-to-sales ratio that came down every month as chip demand exploded. SpaceX gets the same mechanism plus the Elon premium — “we all know what Elon does to these multiples” — with Tesla arguably in “a much weaker mega trend.”
• The long case as told: SpaceX is “probably going to be the only company in the world that can mine asteroids in the next 20 years,” Starlink “could quite literally take on Verizon, AT&T, Comcast,” and the Ukraine war showed how SpaceX can provide massive strategic advantages in warfare. Hence the doctrine: “Don’t short assets that have the potential to conquer the world… Bears consistently die.” Hedged honestly: “maybe it’ll sell off 50% and then it’ll go up 5x in the meantime.”

2. Jonah’s read: a low-float, high-FDV meme coin — do not short

• Jonah stream-bombed the solo broadcast with three takeaways. First: “wow, Hyperliquid’s good” — its arbitrageurs aligned the pre-IPO price with the actual print, and it’s “going to democratize access to a lot of what was previously inaccessible stuff.”
• Second: “Elon is the best in the world at achieving the lowest cost of capital… It’s trading at $2 trillion because he said it was worth $2 trillion and people just sort of bought it there. I’ve never seen an organized effort to pump a stock like this on vibes-based valuations in public markets.”
• Third, the FT’s chart of forced index buying (MSCI, Nasdaq, FTSE Russell): “Day five, you’ve got eight yards of inflows… day 10, you’ve got a yard and then day 15, another five yards… this is a low float high FDV meme coin with huge inflows rather than outflows coming. Do not short this thing.” Avi’s addendum: “shorting Elon is genuinely career risk,” and crypto taught him “scam protocols” hit $50 billion “solely because there was low float and there was retail mania.”
• The zeitgeist in one tweet Jonah read (McAllister Higgins): “I’m at the bottom of a multi-layer SPV… looking forward to the SpaceX IPO much the same way a golden retriever looks forward to a car ride. Thrilled to be involved, no clue how cars work, and unsure if we’re going to the park or if I’m getting neutered.” Even Goldman’s “euphoric” cities-on-Mars pitch is fee-hunting — the banks pulled ~$500 million in aggregate.

3. How to trade it: pass the SPV, buy the unlock dump

• Jonah’s SPV story: a contact whose xAI stock converted to SpaceX equity in the acquisition offered day-one liquidity at the $135 IPO price — for a fee of 30% of first-day price appreciation, with no delivery mechanism in the docs (“double dildoed is the technical term”). He passed, forgoing hundreds of thousands: “everybody out there is probably feeling a little bit of FOMO.”
• His playbook is his Facebook trade: wait for the post-IPO insider-selling collapse — he bought FB at $18-19 (“idiotically, I sold it all at 30 and missed the run-up to 700”). “Sit on your hands, wait till the insiders have way too much to sell… and then buy.”
• Avi’s tactical structure: this “could look very much like an airdrop trade” — chew through live float, mega rally, then more share supply comes in around month six. His level: $135 “is a screaming buy” — an 8-10% position for “a quick 50% flip”; scale in ~142, resell 160-170. The fuel: retail allocation was cut from 30% of float to ~20% (Robinhood seemed to do the best job filling bids), and a lot of the institutional capital is held by long-term holders and sovereign wealth funds, people Avi says aren’t going to sell.

4. The liquidity suck: OpenAI and Anthropic IPOs will hurt the indexes

• Today’s tell: “every other space company is down 30%” — Rocket Lab, Virgin Galactic — because retail piggybacked the narrative (“this was like the classic crypto trade”) and the SpaceX listing sucked the liquidity out of the theme.
• The extrapolation, flagged as a call: “the OpenAI and Anthropic IPO will be a bearish event for the market. You heard it here first.” Unprofitable, they won’t join the Nasdaq — yet all of Mag 7 is AI-adjacent, so money shifts to the new supply and “the indexes, by virtue of construction, are not going to do well,” even if there’s net wealth creation.
• Avi stacks the supply shock: imagine SpaceX’s big holders unlocking “the liquidity they’ve been waiting 20 years for, right at the same time as OpenAI and Anthropic come to market. It’s a lot of selling, frankly.”

5. Avi’s book: chips over SpaceX, uranium back on, watch Warsh

• Structurally bullish SpaceX, but the chip trade is better: $1.7T to $3T is hard, while Intel (~$600B) “could still get to one trillion.” Google’s deal to buy 3 million TPUs from Intel — TPUs that Google used to buy only from TSMC — forced him back in after missing his sub-$100 bid: “Intel trades 99 bucks, bounces… what am I supposed to do?” SanDisk has run from a $1,400 low back to $2,000, pushing all-time highs.
• He’s redeploying the 50% cash from the last episode — rebuying uranium after the sell-off, helped by an apparent Iran deal: “I tried to be bearish. We sold off a decent amount. And then we bounced… I’m sort of flipping back to a little bit of short-term bullishness.”
• Next catalyst: the first Fed meeting with Kevin Warsh — “a 99% chance that quite literally nothing’s going to happen,” but the tell is whether he offers forward guidance (“he’s no Powell”). If Warsh is confident enough to go into a hike cycle, “we’re back to where we were.”

6. Crypto lightning round: L1s were “the biggest grift of a lifetime”

• On Aptos: “crypto’s done, infrastructure is done… all these things are just cabals at this point.” Citing Charles Hoskinson’s line about being “in the business of printing money,” Avi calls the L1 era “maybe the biggest grift of a lifetime… everybody behind the scenes kind of knew what was going on.” He feels “the same way about the Cantons of the world”; Solana is the exception — “for all their faults, they really genuinely are trying to build financial products.”
• Exit discipline from his XMR/ZEC trade (long XMR, short ZEC at a 0.68 ratio): the Zcash bug — possible infinite-ZEC printing, “extremely unlikely” to have actually happened — triggered a 30% selloff and a massive spike. Rule: “anytime you get a massive five standard deviation move like that, close out every trade that you have on that asset”; if you’re losing, you can rejigger it, because news-based moves revert. Same for anyone short space stocks today.
• HOOD over HYPE for the next 6-12 months: Robinhood has a much larger, more diversified income stream, and HYPE will never get the Trump Accounts. He still holds Hype, but “it’s not a 10-bagger for me anymore,” while “I’m in Hood until 1,000 bucks” — unless Hype signs a CFTC deal and builds a Robinhood-competitive app. ENA: he has no long-term view on it; “it’s a very 2023 kind of idea… my bet’s in 5 years it doesn’t exist.”

7. Mega trends, goldfish memory, and creeping communism

• Collectibles are a mega trend riding the boomer-to-Gen-Z-and-millennial wealth transfer: “anything that appeals to people under the age of 35 I think will continue to go up” — Pokémon, Yu-Gi-Oh!, maybe cars and Roman coins if you have edge there. The bigger claim: index funds will underperform active selection — “probably going to be like a decade of hedge funds” — with angel volume up maybe “15 to 20X” (a number he flags he’s making up).
• The psychology sermon: “P&L is a disease of the mind. Whether it’s red or whether it’s green, whether you’re up a million bucks or down 10, your P&L doesn’t matter and it never will.” Trade with “the memory of a goldfish” on lost trades — the lesson from selling Intel at 25 — and avoid trading on mobile unless necessary: it “feels and looks and acts like a dopamine hit.”
• The prescription for most listeners: you “probably don’t need to trade that much” — buy uranium, Intel, SanDisk, Google, trade SpaceX at the target, sit for 3 months. He agrees with Andrew Kang: trim around the edges when things look overheated, but hold mega-trend assets 3-5 years. Your real job: “get good at something” — he got good at trading crypto at 22, then turned $40 million into $1.5 billion at a hedge fund because he had edge.
• The episode’s strangest arc, verbatim: “I’m slowly becoming a communist… five years ago I was a fascist.” He respects Bezos, Musk, and Ellison — the builders — but not private-market wealth hoarding: the robber barons “built universities… libraries… public works… they made the world a better place for your average person. And we need to do that again.” Government can’t manage the money either — “maybe there’s a third secret way… Georgism. We’ll get into that another time.”