Summary

Avi is more bearish on ETH than Solana over the long term, with ETH now mainly a tactical trading asset. Ethereum’s Solidity/EVM moats have eroded, L2 execution has not beaten Solana, and retail flows keep returning to SOL; without an ETF or a “really phenomenal user experience” on an L2, ETH could become “the Ripple of this cycle.”
Jonah sees hated ETH as a contrarian setup capable of a 5x if BTC doubles, but the case is catalyst-dependent. Base memecoins, a game such as Parallel that breaks out, tokenized funds such as BlackRock’s roughly $300 million BUIDL fund, and an unexpectedly approved ETF could bring retail demand; his key warning is, “you don’t want to be short ahead of that.” Avi agrees on avoiding the short but thinks an ETF pop could be brief and $10,000-$15,000 ETH is not enough upside.
The central disagreement is whether Ethereum is structurally losing users or merely waiting for the next retail wave. Avi sees TVL, activity, and projects lagging 2021 even after BTC passed its old high, while Jonah points to enormous Uniswap volume; Avi concedes retail might return near $100,000 BTC, but doubts 2021’s online-24/7 COVID conditions can recur.
Both hosts see the cleanest portfolio as a BTC–memecoin barbell, with product tokens trapped in a difficult middle. Jonah argues tokenization could create millions of ETH-funded wallets, while Avi says cheap L2s will suppress ETH demand and applications such as Aave or Compound are worth far less “when you can value it like a real business.” Avi still likes strong projects bought at $25 million-$50 million valuations with a path toward $500 million-$600 million.
Airdrops may restart interest in real products, but the immediate flow still favors Solana’s casino. Ethena, Wormhole, and Maker are Avi’s test cases; he expects Wormhole wealth to recycle into SOL memes, while Avi cites the playbook of farming, selling immediately, and “rebuying down 80%.” Memecoins have also displaced NFTs as the cycle’s community and speculation vehicle, though Jonah guesses quality NFTs may revive within six months.
Bitcoin’s new demand looks materially different from the capital that once rotated through every altcoin. Avi relays that PDVSA was offering oil-cargo discounts for BTC, contrasting 17 business days for sanctioned dollar settlement with roughly 15 minutes for Bitcoin; Jonah calls this “different money” that may never travel to ETH or smaller sectors.
Avi expects choppy downside before the secular BTC thesis resumes: $66,000 may bounce, $60,000-$70,000 may range, and $52,000-$53,000 is his aggressive buy zone. Failed breaks near $73,000 and $72,000, four rejection wicks, a first lower high, and a broken trend from $40,000 support his caution. Jonah would also buy around $50,000—plus SOL near $150 if under-allocated—but refuses to set a price exit before the halving and instead plans to sell heavily when MVRV Z reaches 7.
Jonah calls this “inning six,” with a one- to two-month selloff, a run toward $80,000-$95,000, and no durable $100,000 break until next year. His path then reaches $120,000-$140,000 before ending, while memes suffer repeated 80% drawdowns along the way; he wants a $50 billion AI coin and DOGE at $50 billion-$75 billion before major de-risking. Avi describes a possible “runt cycle,” and Jonah agrees that the four-year cycle may be fading into slower five-year BTC appreciation interrupted by 40% drawdowns.

Deep dive

1. Ethereum’s institutional pedigree no longer commands capital

Avi’s starting point: Ethereum remains “the chain where the real projects build”—DeFi and RWA teams like its institutional, grounded signal—but that is precisely what today’s investors are not funding. With ETH’s risk profile resembling BTC’s, why target $10,000-$15,000 ETH when BTC might reach $150,000 and memecoins are advertising 100x returns?
Jonah’s contrarian case has four legs: a Base memecoin casino, a game such as Parallel that breaks out, tokenized funds, and an ETH ETF. He cites BlackRock’s BUIDL at about $300 million, a May ETF deadline, and BlackRock’s approval record of “like 800 yes, one no”; if BTC doubles, he can see ETH doing 5x.
Avi accepts each possible catalyst but rejects the current payoff: “There’s just no narrative for Ethereum,” and $10,000-$15,000 is not “pie in the sky.” His preferred exposure is high-end NFTs or selected L2 beta, not spot ETH; if RWA adoption arrives after BTC turns down, it may not keep ETH elevated.
Jonah’s pushback—worth keeping: consensus already says ETH is bad and the ETF will be denied, so an unexpected approval plus brokerage demand could be violent: “You don’t want to be short ahead of that.” Avi agrees on avoiding the short, but thinks any ETF pop may be brief because TradFi remains more comfortable with BTC.

2. Solana has captured retail while Ethereum’s moats erode

Flows, in Avi’s reading, are brutally reflexive: Base attracted activity for roughly two weeks, then much of it returned to Solana over five days. Winners can cash Solana USDC directly through exchanges, so there is no technical lock-in; Jonah thinks a “non-trivial percentage” of the wealth created on SOL may be lost to ETH forever.
His moat argument goes beyond vibes: developers no longer need Solidity, many can already build on Solana, and EVM volume increasingly happens away from Ethereum. Only a “really phenomenal user experience” from Arbitrum, Optimism, or zkSync—better than Solana—would force users back; until then ETH is “just a trading asset.”
The deliberately harsh analogy: ETH might become “the Ripple of this cycle,” expected to repeat a face-ripping prior-cycle rally even as adoption fails. Jonah counters with enormous Uniswap volumes; Avi answers that Ethereum’s TVL and activity trail 2021 despite BTC surpassing its old high. His rule: “Institutions go where retail is because that’s where the money is made.”
Avi does hedge the diagnosis: fuller retail participation might return when BTC flirts with $100,000. But he doubts 2021’s locked-down, online-24/7 environment can be recreated; if retail never arrives, “focus on the crypto-native stuff” and BTC rather than betting on when NFT, gaming, or serious-app demand returns.

3. Bitcoin and memecoins form a barbell around a weak middle

The portfolio debate collapses into a barbell: BTC for durable exposure, memecoins for where crypto-native money is made. Jonah calls memes “the best casino in the history of the world,” with odds better than double zero, but warns that quoted 100x or 1,000x gains are paper wealth—early holders may realize only 2x-3x while late buyers lose 50%.
Jonah still defends the fat-protocol route: tokenization rails could light up millions of ETH wallets and force institutions to buy ETH for gas. Avi’s rebuttal is structural: most activity will sit on cheap L2s, creating little ETH demand, while applications such as Aave or Compound face ordinary economics—“when you can value them like a real business, the answer is not very much.”
Avi has not abandoned products; he has narrowed the entry price. A strong lending protocol bought pre-seed, as an angel, or at fair launch around a $25 million-$50 million valuation might reach $500 million-$600 million and is probably a safer bet than a memecoin. “Slow and steady wins the race,” but products currently lack the casino’s upside and attention.

4. Airdrops and NFT wreckage show where native capital moves

Avi’s live test for whether the middle can revive is the response to Ethena and Wormhole. Ethena’s airdrop was “really good,” Maker had already performed, and sustained interest in real products could pull profits toward nominally safer assets—even if dogwifhat falls 80% as the capital rotates.
Yet his nearer-term Wormhole call is still Solana beta: recipients are likely to spend their new wealth on “Monkey Haircut or whatever,” echoing how Avalanche’s dedicated memecoin fund lifted its own casino. Avi cites 0xGumshoe’s playbook: farm the system, sell immediately, then “buy back down 80%”—do not confuse distribution with durable demand.
Avi says Blur brought liquidity that forced bad NFT projects and fads toward zero; the best projects or grails were not hurt as much, with a CryptoPunk trading for $16 million. Jonah adds that EtherRocks and CryptoPunks survived because their token standard predates ERC-721, which Blur effectively prices.
Jonah’s bigger explanation is substitution: memecoins deliver community, outsized returns, and base-asset beta, so they became “the NFTs of this cycle” and took “the wind out of the sails.” He nevertheless guesses at a renaissance within six months and likes holding Squiggles, Pudgy Penguins, EtherRock, and CryptoPunks, though none should be expected to deliver casino-like returns. He thinks Blur hurt NFTs at the margin by accelerating price discovery, while prices would likely have reached similar levels through a slower bleed.

5. Bitcoin’s new demand may never rotate into altcoins

Avi’s strongest non-speculative BTC anecdote comes from oil: a credible source told him PDVSA was offering export-cargo discounts for Bitcoin payments. Jonah adds that at least 20% of global oil—more than 20 million barrels daily, by his estimate—comes from sanctioned countries; a Venezuelan seller might wait 17 business days for dollars through shell companies or receive BTC in 15 minutes.
The implication is not automatic ETH demand. Jonah calls it “different money”: sanctioned trade and BlackRock ETF allocations may remain Bitcoin-only, while Avi clarifies that the rotation he expected was among existing crypto-native holders—now appearing to flow mainly into memes, with DeFi a possible next stop.
Both therefore treat BTC’s geopolitical use as more relevant than ever, particularly in the developing world. Avi sees a “much more dangerous” world as a reason to hold long term; Jonah adds that cold-wallet owners should know how to recover and spend from a private key if Ledger or Trezor disappears.

6. The chart says de-risk even as the halving says stay long

At recording, BTC had fallen about 5%, failed near $73,000 and $72,000, and sat around $66,000. Avi likes $66,000 for a bounce and expects a $60,000-$70,000 range, but four consecutive daily rejection wicks beginning March 25 told him buying pressure had weakened and gains should have been reduced around $70,000.
His bearish path is conditional, not a cycle-top call: the first lower high and a break of the uptrend from $40,000 suggest sellers can now offset inflows. Support near $62,000 has been tested too often; $52,000-$53,000 is the cleaner buying zone, with roughly $61,000 the ambiguous midpoint where the market could stall.
Jonah would also “close your eyes and buy with both hands” around $50,000, adding BTC and whatever is under-allocated—SOL near $150 in his case—while holding his existing ETH. His timing disagreement: Silk Road coins create a large seller now, but the halving will cut miners’ new supply sales in half, so he finds it “insane to sell before the halving.”
Rather than name a price target, Jonah anchors exits to MVRV Z, the z-scored relationship between market and realized value; at 7, he plans to sell “ass loads of Bitcoin.” Avi likes that for cycle timing but expects the next three weeks to be “dicey,” making consolidation of gains prudent.

7. The cycle may become shorter, choppier, and less cyclical

Jonah places the market in “inning six.” His base case is a one- or two-month selloff, then a rally into $80,000-$95,000 that fails to clear $100,000 on the first try; after several more sideways months, BTC breaks through next year, runs toward $120,000-$140,000, and then the cycle ends.
Memecoins can keep running for six months in that path, but with repeated 80% drawdowns; a BTC print near $52,000 would “absolutely destroy” them and create a buy window. Jonah still wants a $50 billion AI coin, DOGE at $50 billion-$75 billion, and DOGE testing its old high before taking substantial risk off.
Avi characterizes the setup as a possible “little runt cycle”: crazy memecoins, another selloff and apathy, then a plateau where real-world use cases start to take off. Jonah agrees that the four-year cycle may be over, replaced by five years of slower BTC appreciation punctuated by many 40% drawdowns—“long and strong” rather than precise cycle worship.
The closing rule is informational edge. Jonah tells an artist to “stick to what you know”: earn in crypto, hold long-duration assets, and trade memes he can understand rather than opaque L2 software. Avi’s matching confession: crypto might change the world, but “I’m a trader” and “my job is to make money”; until product demand changes, he goes where the money is.

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