Qiao Wang on Counterparty: Bitcoin, AI, Zcash and IPOs

Summary

• Wang’s Bitcoin optimism rests on a three-to-five-year horizon, with no forecast for next week or next month. Government money printing and Bitcoin’s fixed supply remain intact, so “the thesis for the last 15 years remains the same.”
• He prefers underowned crypto to crowded AI today, while remaining bullish on AI over five to 10 years. Poor relative performance against Nasdaq and gold underpins his positioning argument. Crypto would still suffer if stocks fall; the relative upside case is that on rebounds, “maybe crypto goes up more.”
• Wang separates AI’s immediate cryptographic threat from quantum’s longer-term governance challenge. Explicitly not a cryptographer, he puts irreversible AI-driven cryptographic failure below 1%; quantum is “maybe five to 10 years from now.” Surviving AI makes Bitcoin “more Lindy,” whereas quantum requires agreement on technical changes and Satoshi’s coins.
• Wang calls Zcash “probably the best hedge” for Bitcoin’s privacy and quantum risks. His Bitcoin-to-Zcash allocation moved from roughly 5:1 to 2:1 as Zcash appreciated; he prefers not to sell and pay taxes. “Bitcoin that adapts, that is agile” captures his thesis; project abandonment or irreversible cryptographic failure would invalidate it, rather than a price level.
• His equity holdings favor defensible businesses, with further semiconductor buying conditional on a substantial decline. He retains NVIDIA, TSMC and all four hyperscalers, whose existing businesses provide a fallback if AI disappoints. NVIDIA, TSMC and maybe ASML might become attractive after a 50% fall, “assuming the fundamentals don’t change.”
• Wang will sit out Anthropic and OpenAI IPOs because sellers control both price and timing. That creates an “insane amount of adverse selection”; he says mega-IPOs lose on average over the following six to 12 months. He passed even on SpaceX and would consider buying later after substantial price declines or profitability; Anthropic also fails his leadership test.

Deep dive

1. Bitcoin’s long case faces two different security threats

• Wang’s three-to-five-year thesis asks whether government money printing has stopped or Bitcoin’s fixed supply has disappeared. Both answers are no. Next-week or next-month prices are beyond his predictive ability.
• The host’s hacking anxiety prompts a distinction: AI is a current threat; quantum is “maybe 5 to 10 years from now.” Wang, explicitly not a cryptographer, puts the chance of AI breaking ECDSA at about 1%; an efficient classical attack may not exist.
• Surviving AI makes Bitcoin “more Lindy”; quantum has a clear path toward potentially breaking it, so elapsed time adds no reassurance. Wang says the technical solution is known. Governance, including what to do with Satoshi’s coins, is the obstacle; he expects Larry Fink and Brian Armstrong to settle consensus because “they own the liquidity.”

2. Crypto’s appeal is relative, with drawdown risk intact

• Bullish on AI over five to 10 years, Wang dislikes memory-stock charts and crowded positioning. Bitcoin and crypto’s Nasdaq underperformance is possibly the worst in history, alongside underperformance versus gold; he says gold and the AI trade drained crypto liquidity last year.
• The host’s pushback: does underownership signal permanent irrelevance? Wang says the majority of tokens are not interesting and there is a lot of garbage, but cites JPMorgan expecting Bitcoin’s best performance over five to 10 years, alongside the highest volatility. He calls Bitcoin BlackRock’s fastest-growing product and the firm “pot committed.”
• Wang concedes crypto can fall sharply with stocks; on rebounds, “maybe crypto goes up more.” His response to uncertainty: “you don’t trade. You just have a long-term thesis.”
• Silicon Valley euphoria is secondhand: friends reportedly increased exposure 2–3× after visiting, recalling December 2021. Wang never made the trip and warns that “irrational exuberance” is only one data point, insufficient for a trade.

3. Zcash’s hedge pitch rests on its ability to change

• Wang finds the Bitcoin-hedge pitch more persuasive to sidelined investors than privacy alone. He expects quantum scares “every other week” over five to 10 years and considers Zcash’s quantum roadmap the strongest “by far.” He cautions against overexposure.
• “Bitcoin that adapts, that is agile” is the deeper thesis: active stewardship, multiple upgrades within six months, and the hope of adapting to different threats 20 years out.
• His Bitcoin-to-Zcash allocation moved from roughly 5:1 to 2:1 as Zcash appreciated; avoiding taxes discourages selling. Those are his only crypto holdings; Venice and Hyperliquid are hypothetical alternatives if Bitcoin and Zcash did not exist.
• Asked about selling Zcash at $500, Wang says, “I don’t have a price invalidation.” Team abandonment or irreversible cryptographic failure would invalidate the thesis.

4. Equity exposure stays selective through an AI correction

• Wang still owns NVIDIA and TSMC, substantially less than three years ago, citing management and defensibility. He also holds Amazon, Microsoft, Google and Meta: reasonably priced, with existing businesses supporting them if AI disappoints.
• He probably would buy more NVIDIA, TSMC and maybe ASML after a 50% fall, “assuming the fundamentals don’t change.” He avoids semiconductor indexes because he doesn’t understand 90% of their constituents.

5. IPO skepticism and Alliance share a founder filter

• For Wang, IPOs impose adverse selection because “the seller sets the price and the time.” He claims mega-IPOs lose on average over the following six to 12 months.
• He passed even on SpaceX and would consider buying later after substantial price declines or profitability. He describes the three companies as unprofitable or barely profitable. Anthropic adds a leadership objection: owning stock means “being friends” with the founders.
• Alliance is roughly 50% crypto and 50% everything else, particularly hardware and physical AI; Wang thinks pure AI software is “over.” Founders drive selection. His lesson from five to 10 years: “we’re not good at predicting the future,” while choosing founders is their strength.