Josh Shapiro on Trump, Iran War Chaos, Israel's Failure, the Economy, and 2028 Race
Summary
Josh Shapiro pitches Pennsylvania’s operating model as a growth advantage built on speed, predictability, and accountability. He says the state moved permitting from the bottom five nationally to “easily top five,” offers money back for late permits, and issued 40 million permits with only five refunds. Pennsylvania has cut taxes seven times, kept unemployment below the national rate over the last 32 months, and—by his account—created more jobs than all but two states.
Shapiro says the unrealized-gains wealth tax described by Jason is not in Pennsylvania and is not on his agenda, while pairing tax restraint with targeted support for workers. He insists high earners must pay their “fair share.” Pennsylvania’s new working tax credit will return a little over $800 to roughly 940,000 residents, while its tax and growth environment is intended to help life-sciences startups survive the funding “valley” where many fail.
His critique of Trump’s economics is that tax cuts, tariffs, and Medicaid reductions compound rather than relieve household pressure. Shapiro says tariffs lifted coffee 30%, beef 19%, orange juice 9%, and farmers’ fertilizer 36%, while the Iran war pushed Pennsylvania gasoline to roughly $4.15-$4.16. He forecasts it could take “probably years” for gas prices to come down and says federal Medicaid changes threaten coverage for 500,000 Pennsylvanians and possibly 26 rural hospitals.
Shapiro’s Democratic counteroffer is “calm, competent governance” organized around education, safety, economic opportunity, and freedom. Pennsylvania has hired 2,000 additional police officers; he reports violent crime down 12%, fatal gun violence down 42%, improving school performance, and public education ranked around 10th. He refuses to skip ahead to 2028, arguing the 2026 midterms must first become a referendum on federal “chaos and corruption.”
Housing construction and skills-based hiring are the center of Shapiro’s answer to generational economic exclusion. He wants a $1 billion housing fund, regulatory reform, and repairs to a housing stock that is 50% pre-1950. After eliminating most degree requirements across Pennsylvania’s 80,000 state jobs, 60% of state-government hires lack a college degree; expanded apprenticeships and vocational programs can instead lead welders and HVAC workers to six-figure careers.
Shapiro argues institutional deterioration—not merely policy disagreement—is weakening government accountability. He calls congressional leaders “sad, pathetic people” for surrendering tariff and war powers, and alleges self-dealing, family enrichment, donor access, and “next level” pardon abuse under Trump. His proposed recovery is evidence-based prosecution where warranted, transparency around clemency, and a bipartisan return to officials who exercise power with “morality and real scruples.”
On the Middle East, Shapiro separates categorical opposition to antisemitism from legitimate criticism of Israel and an Iran war he calls an undefined “war of choice.” He says Benjamin Netanyahu led Israel down a “dangerous and isolated path,” still favors eventual peaceful Israeli and Palestinian states, and insists Hamas cannot lead the latter. On Iran, his core logic is stark: Trump never defined the objective, so “you don’t know how the hell to get out”—putting American service members and economic interests at risk.
Deep dive
1. Pennsylvania turns bureaucratic speed into growth policy
Shapiro’s topline pitch: Pennsylvania is “a pro-growth state” that has cut taxes seven times, created more jobs than all but two states, and become what he calls the Northeast’s only growing economy. Unemployment has remained below the national rate over the last 32 months.
Permitting moved, by his account, from the national bottom five to “easily top five.” The mechanism is more than digitization: agencies begin from “we want to get to yes,” preserve environmental and safety standards, give businesses predictable timelines—for example, knowing a building can open in six months rather than three years—and refund money when government misses its deadline.
The accountability claim is unusually concrete: Shapiro says Pennsylvania issued 40 million permits during his governorship and made only five refunds. Some reforms came through executive orders; others required agreement from a Republican-led Senate with a two-seat margin and a Democratic-led House with a one-seat margin.
His best specimen is the barber license cut from 20 days to same-day approval. At roughly 10 haircuts daily and $20 each, waiting 20 days costs about $4,000: “That’s real money” returned to a worker simply by making government faster.
2. Fraud enforcement and tax restraint coexist with redistribution
Shapiro distinguishes legitimate spending disputes from theft: voters can debate whether a program deserves a dollar, but “where we should have no difference is if someone’s stealing that dollar.” As attorney general he prosecuted PPP fraud; as governor he requires reimbursement documentation and refers suspected offenses to prosecutors.
Pennsylvania has pursued more Medicaid-fraud prosecutions than nearly any other state, he says, because taxpayer money intended for health care must reach the patient. His standard is “zero tolerance,” using administrative recovery where possible and criminal prosecution where necessary.
Asked about taxing unrealized wealth, Shapiro says Pennsylvania does not impose the levy Calacanis described and it is “certainly not something on my agenda.” He nonetheless wants a fair tax system and expects companies supported through their early years—particularly life-sciences ventures surviving the funding “valley”—to repay the Commonwealth through taxes after succeeding.
Redistribution is concentrated on work: roughly 940,000 Pennsylvanians will receive a little over $800 through a new state earned-income-style credit. Shapiro contrasts that with Trump’s budget, which he says gives unnecessary tax relief at the top while 120,000 residents have already lost health care, another roughly 320,000 could lose Medicaid next year, and 26 deficit-running rural hospitals might close.
3. Shapiro rejects both the easy 2024 story and the premature 2028 race
Shapiro says it became clear that another Biden term was “probably not in the best interest of the party or the country,” and he told Biden so directly and bluntly. Once Biden withdrew with only “a hundred and whatever days” remaining, however, Shapiro saw little room for Calacanis’s proposed accelerated primary.
He resists treating Democrats’ last-election defeat as the final direction of travel, pointing to 2025 Democratic wins in New Jersey, Virginia, and three Pennsylvania Supreme Court races. His emphasis is governing after victory: “The whole purpose of running in an election is getting the chance to govern, not just winning the election.”
Calacanis alleges Kamala Harris rejected Shapiro because a Jewish running mate could not win; Shapiro firmly corrects him. He says he withdrew roughly 48 hours before Tim Walz was selected, calling Harris on Sunday evening after a candid meeting because he preferred serving Pennsylvania: “This wasn’t about her not picking me because of my faith.”
4. Democrats’ alternative is education, safety, growth, and freedom
Shapiro will not handicap 2028 before the midterms. He wants 2026 to be a national referendum on Washington’s “chaos and corruption,” paired with evidence that “calm, competent governance” can grow an economy and improve public services.
His Pennsylvania proof points include 2,000 additional police officers, community-violence prevention funding, violent crime down 12%, and fatal gun violence down 42%. He says school scores are rising, truancy is falling, and Pennsylvania is around 10th in ConsumerAffairs’ public-education ranking.
When pressed for a national platform, Shapiro offers four commitments: public education, safe communities, a pro-growth economy reaching rural and “forgotten” places, and freedom. His wedge is that Republicans once claimed freedom but now dictate “what books” children read, “what medicines” women take, and how families raise children.
The economic indictment carries measurable prices: coffee up 30%, beef 19%, orange juice 9%, and fertilizer 36%, which Shapiro attributes to Trump’s tariff policy. Yet criticism alone is insufficient: Democrats must answer, “Okay, well, what are you doing to make people’s lives better?”
5. Housing and skills-first hiring widen access to economic opportunity
Shapiro has requested a $1 billion fund to build housing and repair existing homes. With 50% of Pennsylvania housing built before 1950, a few thousand dollars for a boiler, roof, or windows can keep someone housed without requiring new construction; regulatory reform must also “damn near eliminate” building delays.
His first executive order removed college-degree requirements from nearly all 80,000 state jobs except roles such as doctors and lawyers. Now 60% of state hires lack a college degree, matching a Commonwealth where 62% of adults do not hold one.
Pennsylvania tripled funding for vocational and technical education and sharply increased apprenticeship support. Shapiro’s examples are deliberately tangible: a welder can earn six figures in a South Philadelphia shipyard, while an HVAC technician can do the same on complex life-sciences projects.
6. A big tent succeeds by banking partial agreements
Asked whether the socialist Democratic movement around Mamdani worries him, Shapiro declines the purity-test frame: “We got to have a big tent” and a real debate among people who disagree. Expelling everyone short of 100% agreement would make governing impossible.
His divided-government method is arithmetic: ask a Republican lawmaker for their 10 priorities, present his own 10, then enact the three or four that overlap. Durable legislative and electoral majorities come from common ground, not exclusive attention to the remaining “five, six, seven things” in dispute.
7. Congress’s surrendered power enables corruption and pardon abuse
Shapiro calls congressional leaders “frankly kind of sad, pathetic people,” describing Speaker Johnson as a rubber stamp for Trump. By surrendering constitutional authority over tariffs and declarations of war, legislators put Trump ahead of their oath and make the country weaker.
His constitutional concern is structural: the founders assumed officeholders would be honorable and would exercise their powers as checks, sometimes slowing decisions to stop harm. That architecture fails when leaders voluntarily transfer authority to an executive they will not restrain.
The corruption case Shapiro presents includes family enrichment, self-dealing, pardon lobbying at Trump’s “swim club,” and taking a billion-dollar jet from Qatar while assuming nothing is attached. Calacanis adds an important caveat: no court or investigation had established wrongdoing by Trump’s children in the matters discussed.
Shapiro publicly criticized Biden for pardoning his son but calls Trump’s use of clemency “next level.” He says he agonizes over his own decisions, explains approvals and denials transparently, and wants investigators to “follow the evidence, follow the law”—bringing charges when warranted while never weaponizing prosecution against political opponents.
8. Antisemitism is categorical; Israeli policy is legitimately contested
Shapiro insists on separating antisemitism from Middle East policy. He says antisemitism is present on both left and right and allows “no nuance”; he praises Ted Cruz for confronting it within the Republican Party and says Democrats must police their own coalition just as directly.
On Israel, Shapiro speaks “as an American” seeking regional peace and stability. He says Netanyahu has long led Israel down a “dangerous and isolated path,” fractured bipartisan American support, and failed to mind the shop before October 7; the long-term objective should remain Israeli and Palestinian states living peacefully side by side, with Hamas excluded from Palestinian leadership.
Calacanis argues Israel’s conduct may be driving domestic antisemitism; Shapiro warns that equating Jews with Israel invokes “one of the oldest anti-Semitic tropes,” the notion of dual loyalty. Criticism and peaceful protest must remain protected, while Jewish identity must not be equated with Israeli government policy.
9. An undefined Iran mission cannot define a credible exit
Shapiro labels the Iran conflict a “war of choice” whose objectives Trump never explained. The consequence is operational, not semantic: “If you don’t know why you’re going in, you don’t know how the hell to get out,” and America’s security and economic interests are worse off.
Asked why Trump entered, Shapiro offers contradictions rather than false certainty. Rubio initially said action was necessary because Netanyahu would otherwise force America’s hand, then the administration walked that back; the administration said seven or eight months earlier that nuclear capabilities had been destroyed, only to cite destroying them again as the new mission.
Regime change fares no better in Shapiro’s accounting: an “80-something-year-old Ayatollah” was replaced by a “60-something-year-old Ayatollah” who appeared more hardline. He mourns 13 American service members killed on a mission the president never defined and says the military deserved clear objectives and a way out.
Shapiro remains explicit about uncertainty: the interview occurred Tuesday afternoon before Trump’s threatened next move, so he could not know whether Trump would “chicken out” or follow through. Calacanis closes by arguing that America should never be led around by another nation; Shapiro’s stated test is that policy serve American security, freedom, and opportunity.