Gold $7,000, Silver $200: David Hunter Doubles Down

Summary

• David Hunter forecasts $7,000 gold and $200 silver within three to six months, despite a deeper sell-off than he expected. He assigns a “much better than even chance” that the previous week marked the low, interpreting silver’s break below July’s $55–$56 support as a possible stop-running retest. His precedent is silver’s move from the $40s to $122 in three months or less, although he concedes it may still reach $50 or $48.
• Hunter retains targets of S&P 10,000, Dow 70,000, Nasdaq 36,000 and Russell 4,000. Strong earnings, AI and improving banks and materials underpin his conviction; shallow corrections despite uncertainty are “a very bullish sign.” He thinks S&P 10,000 could happen by year-end, though probably not, and expects it within the next few months. He acknowledges his forecast has been “stretched out and stretched out.”
• Hunter sees a major peak in Treasury yields and a substantial bond bull market over the next couple of years. The 10-year’s retreat from roughly 5.35%–5.36% toward 5% matters more to him than individual Fed meetings. He expects no pre-election hike, with December tightening still possible, and argues that inflation explanations follow market prices: “the rationale will follow the move.”
• Hunter considers oil returning to the $60s more likely than reaching $130–$150. Successive highs around $120, $106–$107 and $103 support his topping thesis, although “I could be wrong.” He thinks post-election developments could eventually wind down the Iran conflict, potentially after renewed fighting that he guesses could be “ugly for a month or two,” probably shorter.
• A dollar decline toward 82–84 remains a central mechanism behind Hunter’s metals targets. He treats the rebound from 95-and-change to 103–104 as a countertrend move and expects falling US yields to weaken the currency, particularly if they decline faster than rates elsewhere. “A big part of the run will be a drop in the dollar.”
• Hunter expects a Republican Senate and probably a Democratic House, leaving his bullish market forecast intact. Against the host’s cited 63% Democratic-sweep odds and Brazil sell-off analogy, he questions betting-market integrity and expects a two-to-four-point Republican polling bounce. Even a Democratic sweep, which he views as deeply negative, would leave several months before markets confront the consequences, in his assessment.

Deep dive

1. The bond-market turn matters more than one Fed decision

• Recorded October 28 before the Fed announcement, the discussion opens with the host citing a 90% probability of no hike. Hunter expects unchanged policy ahead of the election, with December tightening still under consideration. A warning that inflation is running away and policy will get much tighter could upset markets, but he calls that “obviously not going to happen.”
• The host’s pushback: how can the S&P around 7,700 coexist with discussion of two or three hikes? Hunter points to the 10-year yield retreating toward 5% after retesting roughly 5.31%–5.32%, below its 5.35%–5.36% high. He calls this “a major top in rates” and forecasts “a very big bull market for bonds” over the next couple of years.
• Hunter’s mechanism runs from prices to explanations: yields rose from roughly 4%, incorporating inflation anxiety; once they rolled over, commentators began arguing inflation might be peaking. “The rationale will follow the move.” Individual Fed-meeting reactions may last days, while the bond market ultimately determines rates. Market commentary, he argues, is often “more emotion than science.”

2. Oil’s lower highs support an inflation peak

• Hunter leans toward an inflation peak because some increases are temporary, with oil the clearest example. Crude reached $120 early in the conflict, then $106–$107 a couple of weeks before recording and roughly $103 that week. Those lower highs support his topping thesis. “I could be wrong,” he says, but considers a return to the $60s more likely than the $130–$150 forecasts he hears.
• The host adds that Strait of Hormuz flow figures suggest it is open, perhaps without that being fully priced. Hunter acknowledges depleted inventories and diesel/product problems; his argument concerns a turn in momentum. The “rate of change of rate of change might start rolling over.” He thinks post-election developments could wind the conflict down, potentially after it first escalates.

3. Election uncertainty leaves Hunter’s bullish base case intact

• The host’s concern is an abrupt repricing: he cites 63% odds of a Democratic sweep and a Brazilian market decline of roughly 23%–24% following Lula’s surprise victory. Hunter disputes the betting-market signal, alleging that small election markets can be manipulated and that Democratic money is skewing them.
• Hunter also argues Republican voters are declining pollsters’ calls and texts. A two-to-four-point Republican improvement could swing races in Ohio, Texas, Michigan, Alaska and Maine. His base case is a Republican Senate, potentially with only a slight majority, and probably a Democratic House. Nevertheless, he acknowledges: “I can’t predict the outcome.”
• His political risk case is explicitly pro-Republican: he claims a Democratic sweep would threaten the filibuster, court composition and Electoral College, calling that “lights out for this country.” Even then, he thinks investors would have several months before confronting adverse changes. For now, “my forecast is still as bullish as ever.”
• On Iran, the host worries conflict could restart after the midterms. Hunter thinks sanctions, the blockade and Bessent’s money tracing are weakening the regime. He argues the regime must go for the conflict to end, does not expect large ground deployments, and thinks Israel could rejoin. Rejecting the Iraq/Afghanistan comparison, he guesses renewed fighting could be “ugly for a month or two,” but probably shorter.

4. The metals washout sets up another steep rally in Hunter’s scenario

• The metals sell-off went further than Hunter expected, particularly in miners. Silver broke July’s $55–$56 low and reached $53; he reads that as potentially a stop-running retest. “It may go to 50 or 48,” he concedes, but assigns a “much better than even chance” that the previous week marked the low. It is early; he would not call it certain.
• The sentiment reset is central: nine months of losses have battered investors who bought the January surge, and even followers who trusted his targets are wavering. “Shake out the weak hands, shake out the hands that aren’t so weak” captures his interpretation. His work does not support the $3,500 gold forecasts he hears.
• His forecasts are $7,000 gold and $200 silver within three to six months. The precedent is silver’s move from the $40s to $122 across November, December and January, in three months or less. He anticipates “another steep rally that may be even steeper than the last one.” Widespread disbelief reinforces his conviction.
• The currency leg matters: Hunter targets 82–83 for the dollar, allowing an 82–84 range, after its drop from 115 to 95-and-change and countertrend rebound to 103–104. “A big part of the run will be a drop in the dollar.” Falling US yields should help, particularly if they decline faster than rates elsewhere; he thinks the turn could come after the election.

5. Improving breadth sustains the equity targets as timing stretches

• Hunter retains “very high conviction” in S&P 10,000, Dow 70,000, Nasdaq 36,000 and Russell 4,000. For the S&P, year-end is possible but probably too soon; he expects the move over the next few months. He cites strong earnings, expects that strength to continue next year, and sees AI as an important contributor.
• Breadth carries more weight for him than election or Iran uncertainty: banks, financials and materials bottomed a couple of weeks earlier and are turning up while AI has resumed advancing. The Nasdaq corrected only about 6%, the S&P 2.5%–3%. A market given reasons to fall that refuses to do so is, for Hunter, “a very bullish sign.”
• His admission matters alongside those targets: “my forecast has been stretched out and stretched out.” Some earlier targets were met and subsequently raised because his indicators still showed upside. With the S&P only 1%–2% below its highs, he sees a “huge wall of worry” and investors reluctant even to embrace 8,000. He concedes “forecasts can be wrong”; market moves are “not on a clock.”