Global BUST Into Money Printing 'Like Never Before' - Then $20k Gold, $1k Silver: David Hunter

Summary

• Hunter has raised his melt-up targets again: S&P 10,000, Nasdaq 36,000, Russell 4,000, Dow 70,000 — roughly 25–30% upside he expects this year. He thinks the market is “probably in the parabolic,” with only 1–4% pullbacks left, fueled by institutions that have “fought this thing from the October 2022 low” and a sell side only now catching up (seven or eight strategists over 8,000).
• The other side is a global bust “bigger than 2008–09,” which could involve an ~80% crash — S&P 10,000 down to 2,000 — and a secular top whose highs “could stand for decades,” Japan-1989 style. He thinks the 44-year secular bull dating to August 1982 (Dow 780 then) is coming to an end, and in that scenario “that buy-and-hold strategy is gonna fail you.”
• The most predictable part of his forecast is the policy response: “money coming out of every corner of every central bank,” maybe $20 trillion-plus from the Fed, and money printed “like there’s never been money printed before.” If the system goes over the cliff, that funds a cyclical rebound — perhaps 2,000 back to 8,000 in a year and a half or two, or less — but then lower highs and probably lower lows by the mid-2030s. He separately uses roughly $50 trillion in global money as an illustrative boost to demand.
• With a lag of a couple of years, the print ignites an inflation cycle unseen in roughly 45–50 years: a deflationary bust year, then single digits, then 20–25% inflation by the early next decade, with the 10-year going from zero toward nearly 20%. Leadership rotates to old industrial and commodity names — Caterpillar, Deere, and gold, silver, and copper producers — while passive S&P holders find “your weightings are all backwards.”
• Metals roadmap: silver to $200 this cycle (raised from roughly $125 to $170 to $200), a 50–75% bust retracement to about $50, then $1,000 around 2032–33; gold to $7,000, back to $3,500–4,000, then $20,000; copper “$20 or $30, who knows.” Near term he is confident the 55–56 silver level was the correction bottom after the run from 50 to 122, with 72 the next stop; on Michael Oliver’s far higher numbers: “I can’t get there myself… but I don’t think he’s crazy.”
• He believes “interest rates peaked yesterday,” with the dollar heading to about 83 — a big part of the gold move — and Japan the wild card in the bust. Decades of zero-rate policy made it look like monetary theory was extinct; now inflation and rates are breaking out in an over-leveraged system. With 330 trillion-plus in global debt, he is not calling for a sovereign crisis because governments have the printing press; he expects private debt — commercial real estate, private credit, and private equity — to be the problem.
• Positioning: XLF to 90, which he thinks would be a more-than-50% move from its current level, because “there’s two- and three-year returns still ahead of us that are gonna happen in a matter of months” — but for the bust, Treasuries top the protection list, along with FDIC-insured savings up to $250,000 per institution. His behavioral warning: exit early and the final parabolic run “will suck you back in” — right at the top.

Deep dive

1. Targets raised again — and the parabolic may already be underway

• Since his last appearance Hunter has lifted his index targets: S&P 10,000, Nasdaq 36,000, Russell 4,000, Dow 70,000 — 25–30% more depending on the index, and he thinks they hit this year. On a monthly chart “we have gone more vertical,” and while he won’t confirm the parabolic until after the fact, “there’s a pretty good chance we just keep going here” with 1–4% pullbacks.
• The fuel remains the wall of worry: institutions have fought the tape since the October 2022 low, and each selloff deepened their bearishness, forcing chases on every turn up. Now seven or eight sell-side strategists are over 8,000 (“Denny’s got 8,400”), but none yet grasp that “the vertical part of this can cover a lot of ground in a hurry.”
• The top will be a sentiment event: recklessness, “once the Street is all in and retail is all in.” His semis tell: strategists insist this demand cycle is different, but “nobody’s talking about double-ordering… it always gets like this… and then it all of a sudden stops short, and everybody scrambles for the exit.” He sees a likely top this year, though “I can’t say it’s impossible that it goes into next year.”
• He sees months before the real trouble spots: interest rates are not the problem, but early signs of trouble in private credit and private equity, along with froth in AI, are developing without yet implying an imminent crash.

2. War, a closed Strait of Hormuz — and the market climbs anyway

• Jesse’s puzzle: a full-blown Mideast war, the Strait effectively closed, and 20% of world energy supply at risk — most analysts would have called a correction, yet new highs keep coming. Hunter’s answer: the world entered the conflict “awash with oil,” the $150 narrative is “proving false” with OPEC having to constrain supply, and oil could reach the high 80s but, in his view, not go much beyond that, down from the original 120 spike.
• His geopolitical read — as stated: the “anti-Trump and TDS” media obscures that Iran’s air force and navy are largely gone and its currency decimated; he doesn’t buy a nuclear rebuild “in a matter of months while you’re trying to survive.” Trump is “showing good restraint” versus the armchair generals, and “the market in its aggregate and its infinite wisdom continues to recognize the real truth” — Iran becoming less of a threat. The war, like the 2025 tariffs, is wall-of-worry fuel.

3. The bust is bigger than 2008–09 — and the print is the most predictable part

• Hunter’s core sequence: a credit crisis exceeding 2008–09, when the system “pulled back from the cliff just in time.” If it goes over that cliff this time, central bankers “won’t have a choice” — perhaps $20 trillion or more from the Fed, with money printed “like there’s never been money printed before.”
• The crash math: if the S&P falls 80% or anything close, it goes from 10,000 to 2,000. Even a rebound to 8,000 in a year and a half or two, or less, leaves it 2,000 short of the top — then lower highs and ultimately probably lower lows out in the mid-2030s. The comparison is 1989 Japan: “the highs of this market cycle could stand for decades,” which is why “that buy-and-hold strategy is gonna fail you” after 40 years of being right.
• His answer to Jesse’s cyclical-vs.-secular question: one secular bull since August 1982 — he was running money at Textron then and told the investment committee to keep its powder dry with the Dow at about 780 — driven by P/E expansion as rates fell. Now it reverses: the 10-year goes to zero in the bust, then climbs toward almost 20% as inflation runs from negative to 25%, compressing multiples. He sees the stock-market peak this year and the bond secular bull peaking in late 2027 or early 2028.
• He later uses a roughly $50 trillion global-money boost as an illustrative scenario for demand, rather than as the specific central-bank-printing figure.

4. Next cycle belongs to commodities — and passive portfolios are built backwards

• The inflation path: a deflationary bust year, then low single digits, high single digits, double digits, and 20–25% by the early next decade. With a couple-year lag, roughly $50 trillion in global money could boost demand for power, AI build-out, and US reshoring against limited new greenfield production: “the only thing that can give is price straight up.”
• Leadership rotates to old industrial and commodity names — “the Caterpillars of the world will work, the Deeres of the world will work,” plus silver, gold, and copper producers — because, in his view, companies with pricing power and earnings that outstrip inflation are the ones that can outperform. The passive trap: prior leadership dominates cap-weighted indices, so S&P holders may enter the next cycle with “your weightings all backwards” — heaviest in areas he expects to underperform and lightest in the new leaders.

5. Silver 200 then 1,000; gold 7,000 then 20,000 — drawdowns included

• Silver: $200 this cycle (raised from roughly $125, he thinks, going into January, to roughly $170 and then $200 at the end of May), a 50–75% bust retracement — say to $50 — then $1,000 around 2032–33, though “you can drive a truck through how much you can miss that by.” Gold: $7,000 this cycle, retracing to $3,500–4,000, then $20,000. Copper: “$20 or $30, who knows?”
• On Michael Oliver’s far higher numbers — Jesse clarifies Oliver said $1,000 within a year “wouldn’t shock him,” not that it was a prediction — Hunter is candid: “I can’t get there myself… but I don’t think he’s crazy,” while conceding his own numbers may “prove conservative.”
• Near term: the parabolic run from $50 to $122 took months to correct, but 55–56 was “the correct correction bottom,” 72 is the next stop, and future pullbacks “might last days, but not months.” Jesse’s point on sentiment: people called $50 crazy from the mid-20s — “now everybody’s crying” at $65.
• On Jesse’s debasement question (Zimbabwe, Weimar): “for sure it plays a role” — the dollar going to about 83 within six to nine months is “a big part of the move to 7,000,” alongside rates, which Hunter says “peaked yesterday” (with Bessent’s announcement helping), heading below 4% and then toward 3% or lower for the final metals leg.

6. Japan is the wild card; Treasuries and insured cash are the shelters

• Japan looked like it had made “monetary theory extinct” with permanent zero-rate policy — but Hunter, “a monetarist pretty much,” says the postponed reckoning is arriving: inflation breaking out, rates tracking it higher, in a system deeply over-leveraged. He forecasts the yen-dollar rate at 0.0085 from roughly 0.0063. With 330 trillion-plus in global debt, “leverage works both ways.” He is not calling for a sovereign crisis because governments have the printing press; he expects private debt to be the problem, including commercial real estate, private equity, and private credit.
• Ride-it-out case: XLF to 90, which he thinks would be a more-than-50% move from its current level, though he was unsure of its current level, since “there’s two- and three-year returns still ahead of us that are gonna happen in a matter of months.” But the behavioral risk cuts both ways — exit early, watch the parabolic, and psychology “will suck you back in… and then you get back in at the top.”
• Bust shelters, explicitly not advice: Treasuries top the list (long duration pays most if rates fall, but has the most volatility if he is wrong); FDIC-insured savings up to $250,000 per institution — the printing press will fund FDIC “not this cycle; another cycle, yes.” He suspects money-market funds will again be supported so they do not break the buck, as in 2008–09, but says that is uncertain; pension funds are also uncertain. Bail-ins are possible in Europe and less likely in the US. Junk bonds and equities “can lose a lot of money for you.”