Episode 134 - March 14, 2025

Summary

• Novo’s CagriSema REDEFINE 2 readout — 12.6% placebo-adjusted weight loss in obese diabetics — knocked the stock roughly 8–10%, and Sam Vicelli called the selloff confusing. The data appeared in line with Zepbound in this population; efficacy usually declines in diabetes, and about 62% of patients reached the top dose versus 57% in REDEFINE 1. Eric Schmidt’s take: investors focus too much on singular numbers; convenience, tolerability and safety may matter more than headline weight loss.
• BIO CEO John Crowley’s core message: “on balance there are more positive opportunities than there are negative ones for biotech” — and investors should read what Washington isn’t saying. His data points included HHS’s $25,000 buyout offer exempting FDA inspectors and reviewers, the White House withdrawal of the CDC nominee, and a joint address that he described as the longest State of the Union or joint address in at least modern history without mentioning drug prices.
• Crowley’s threat list is MFN pricing, tariffs and vaccine trust; his opportunity list is PBM reform, IRA fixes and the tax bill. On MFN, he said the framing has shifted to “it’s not that Americans pay too much for drugs, it’s that other countries pay too little,” and that the issue is not going away. Watch the National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology report the week of April 7: “these reports don’t sit on a shelf. They are implemented.”
• The BIOSECURE legislation is, in Crowley’s view, largely ineffective or toothless and increasingly unlikely to become law, while biosecurity as a concept is ascendant. He thinks the U.S. has “a couple of years till we’re at par or worse with China,” argues for breaking down U.S. barriers rather than punishing China, and says he told DOGE: “you can’t go in with a wrecking ball… you might as well just give the whole industry to China.”
• Obesity deal flow: Zealand/Roche will co-develop petrelintide plus CT-388 50/50 in a roughly $5.6 billion deal with a $1.65 billion upfront, while Viking signed a $150 million, three-year CordenPharma API deal covering capacity for 100 million autoinjectors, 100 million syringes and 1 billion tablets annually. Brian Skorney’s read: share prices suggest less M&A froth, but franchise logic means an amylin-focused entrant such as AbbVie may need to build a broader franchise through acquisition, licensing or partnership. Viking’s manufacturing deal solved a real problem and is not necessarily an anti-M&A signal.
• Small-cap oncology consolidation rolls on (Sun/Checkpoint, BMS/2seventy after the other half of bluebird, and Jazz/Chimerix), and Eric expects more, with “onesies and twosies” trading at or below cash — but SpringWorks/Merck KGaA remains unresolved. Brian said the stock is around $50 versus the $60 post-announcement peak; management is returning calls but not attending conferences. If SpringWorks holds a conference call when it reports first-quarter results in April, the market may conclude that no imminent acquisition is coming. Merck KGaA, with $15 billion of capital, remains the most likely acquirer.
• In gMG, Eric Schmidt said 52-week Uplizna data show curves continuing to separate on twice-yearly dosing — with full data due April 8 — while argenx remains his European top pick. MG-ADL was about –2.8 versus about –3.0 for Vyvgart; Eric cited QMG values of –2.0 versus –4.3, with Vyvgart at –5.3, though the transcript does not clearly assign the first two comparison values. Uplizna may replace C5 antagonists, be used after Vyvgart failure, or serve as maintenance after remission. Grace Colón’s investor lesson: the roughly $6 billion and growing market may matter more than the two-drug fight.
• BioNTech guided to €2 billion in sales versus €2.5 billion consensus, with inventory write-downs a major factor, and could end the year with roughly €14 billion in cash — about €60 per share versus a €100 stock — making the PD-1/VEGF pipeline the story. Josh highlighted Summit’s lung-cancer survival update, with an initial hazard ratio of 0.8 and about half the events, plus BioNTech’s first- and second-line SCLC data in Paris on March 28. Legend’s Carvykti capacity roughly doubles from just under $1 billion to about $2 billion and more than 10,000 doses this year, reaching 20,000–24,000 annual slots by 2027.

Deep dive

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