Summary

Jonah’s return to oil is a career move, not a retreat from crypto. After a 17-year career in one asset class, he left Cumberland for a new role mixing proprietary trading with a crude-oil business, while retaining and adding to his crypto holdings. He still sees Bitcoin, ETH, or a strategy adding alpha to them producing “10x to 15x returns over the next decade, at a minimum.”
Oil’s opportunity comes from structural undersupply before high prices eventually destroy demand. Russia shifted the narrative from EV-driven obsolescence to security of supply while humanity still consumes more than 100 million barrels daily, roughly 100-103 million; meanwhile, higher rates make extraction and delivery capital more expensive, even for Exxon. Jonah expects undersupply over the next couple of years, followed by a price run-up that kills demand and accelerates EV adoption.
Crypto’s most credible commodity use case is cross-border settlement, including oil trades that conventional rails complicate. Avi highlighted new Hong Kong firms buying likely Russian oil around $60 a barrel alongside widespread USDT use; Jonah expects “intelligent oil trading companies” eventually to support USDT, ETH and Bitcoin. His framing: adversaries have always traded energy—crypto merely updates the mechanism needed for “keeping the lights on.”
Jonah’s leading zkEVM bet is Polygon, which he considers roughly 18 months ahead and “quite under-owned.” He cited Polygon’s purchase of “Hermes”—probably in 2021, though possibly 2022—for $400 million, sustained activity without heavy incentives, $180 million of Nike NFTs, better token economics than Optimism or Arbitrum, and Sandeep’s continued dedication. Jonah’s caveat was tactical: if Polygon reached $1, his position would be materially smaller.
Base may become the main venue for retail crypto activity, but Jonah questions how much value Optimism captured from enabling it. Avi cited Base’s roughly $200,000 in weekly revenue; Jonah said it was an OP Stack optimistic rollup or sidechain and could attract Coinbase users when retail returns. Coinbase received roughly 2%-2.5% of OP supply, which Jonah called “a very expensive trade.” He remained bullish on Polygon and Coinbase over the following four-to-eight-week window.
Telegram’s default wallet distribution could turn a good product into mass-market financial infrastructure. Jonah put the valuation at $25-$30 billion, while Avi pushed to $50-$70 billion—about 8x the token at the time—and said he would buy below approximately $1.50-$2. Avi’s five-year illustration was a Bolivian farmer accepting “Telegram coin” instead of local currency or a costly middleman.
ETFs should lead the rally; the surviving altcoins can wait. Jonah sees ETFs as the secure post-FTX gateway; Avi said markets were priced to perfection and would wait for a dip before adding equity beta. Jonah would buy BTC below $26,000 through $22,000 and put “80% of my net worth” long if it broke $22,000, while expecting initial GBTC outflows before durable demand. Both reject an altcoin-led rally: Avi said 99.9% of non-BTC/ETH coins are worthless, while Jonah and Avi noted that specific exceptions may still outperform and that DOT’s $5.5 billion fully diluted valuation remains hard to short when carrying costs approach 30% annually.

Deep dive

1. Oil’s supply problem pulled Jonah back without breaking his crypto thesis

Jonah resigned from Cumberland after an opportunity emerged in his 17-year native market. He cautioned against copying the move—“you’re supposed to keep a steady hand”—but described it as a chance to add new skills through a role combining proprietary trading with a crude-oil business.
His oil thesis begins with Russia changing the debate from whether EVs would erase demand to whether supply is secure. The world still consumes more than 100 million barrels per day, roughly 100-103 million, while the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve was drawn down and had not meaningfully been refilled.
Higher rates complete the mechanism: the hundreds of billions required to extract and deliver oil now carry a real financing cost, “even if you’re Exxon.” Jonah expects several years of structural undersupply, followed by a price run-up that destroys demand, accelerates EV adoption and ultimately turns the cycle downward.

2. Crypto can modernize the rails beneath adversarial global trade

Avi’s Hong Kong observation joined the two markets: dozens of newly formed firms appeared to be buying likely Russian crude near the $60-per-barrel threshold and reselling it, while USDT was already widely used to move capital. He would not be surprised if some oil trading were occurring in USDT or Bitcoin.
Jonah’s response was historical rather than moralistic: oil has always moved between geopolitical enemies, including Marc Rich’s trade in Iranian oil to Israel. Adding USDT, ETH or Bitcoin would simply modernize transaction mechanisms—“there’s nothing sinister about this; this is just about keeping the lights on.”
Token2049 reinforced Avi’s broader thesis that crypto’s base utility is transferring value more efficiently. The conference had roughly 1,000 booths and energetic investors, though too few compelling projects and likely more VC culling ahead; the liquid market had broadened, while the VC market still had ways to go.

3. Asia’s allocators are asking about zkEVMs—and Jonah answers Polygon

Avi met probably 10-15 Asia-based allocators, many roughly 25-to-40-year-old sons or daughters of magnates who wanted their own investment identity. The sophistication gap was stark: U.S. investors asked “what is Bitcoin,” while Asian counterparts asked for the best zkEVM implementation.
Jonah’s answer was Polygon. He recalled that Polygon bought “Hermes”—probably in 2021, though possibly 2022—for $400 million, and singled out its founder, Daniel Schwartz, as “a very, very smart guy.” He viewed the team as about 18 months ahead.
The supporting evidence was operational: approximately $180 million of Nike NFTs, continued high activity without the incentives other L1s and L2s required, and the number-two position in NFTs. Polygon had little token left with which to incentivize activity, yet usage remained high; its token economics looked stronger to Jonah than Optimism’s or Arbitrum’s.
Jonah said the market had seized on Polygon’s business-development successes and embarrassments. His conviction remained conditional, not devotional: Polygon was “quite under-owned,” but “if Polygon goes to a buck, my position size is going to be much less than it is today.”

4. Base may capture the retail funnel, but Optimism paid dearly for the distribution

Avi cited Base’s roughly $200,000 per week in revenue and asked whether it was a ZK rollup. Jonah said no: it was based on the OP Stack and was essentially an optimistic rollup or OP sidechain.
Jonah expects Base to become “the place where activity happens when retail comes back” because users holding money at Coinbase can move on-chain with minimal friction; he was bullish on both Polygon and Coinbase over the following four to eight weeks.
His concern was OP value accrual. Jonah said Coinbase received about 2%-2.5% of Optimism’s supply, making Base “a very expensive trade for Optimism,” and it remained unclear whether future partners would return sequencer revenue on similar terms. Still, he said getting Worldcoin and Base online was meaningful and praised Optimism’s branding.

5. Telegram’s wallet turns distribution and good UX into the thesis

Telegram’s wallet impressed Avi because it was genuinely good and, for international non-U.S. users, would sit directly among the bottom tabs unless they opted out. The product exemplified Steve Jobs’s idea: find something others execute poorly and simply do it well.
That standard exposes crypto’s opening: “there’s a dearth of great products,” not ideas. Friend.tech carried an excellent concept despite looking “like Windows 95”; Avi argued builders could inspect the top 100 crypto products, find that perhaps 90 were good ideas executed badly, and win through superior UX.
Jonah put a valuation at $25-$30 billion, while Avi pushed to $50-$70 billion—about 8x the token at the time—and said he would buy below approximately $1.50-$2. Avi imagined the endpoint: within five years, a subsistence farmer in Bolivia might prefer “Telegram coin” to local currency, a bank or “a usurious middleman.”

6. ETFs should lead the rally; the surviving altcoins can wait

Jonah expects ETFs to become the secure gateway missing after FTX. Price appreciation should arrive first, then larger Coinbase balances should pull retail users toward on-chain activity, NFTs and other secondary effects—an echo of 2020-21’s sequence.
Macro offered less immediate comfort: Avi said markets were “priced to perfection,” and there was a real risk that commodities could trigger another supply-side inflation shock. As a tactical equities trader, he would wait for a dip before adding broad equity beta rather than buy the S&P at prevailing levels.
Jonah’s plan was to accumulate BTC below $26,000 down through $22,000 ahead of the halving, rate cuts and 2024. A break below $22,000 would be a “giga-buy”—potentially “80% of my net worth” long—although Jonah expected ETF launches initially to suffer GBTC outflows before becoming decisively positive.
Both reject an altcoin-led rally. Jonah argued that Bitcoin and Ether would move first, followed by a period in which investors could assess whether the rally was real. Avi said “altcoins” was no longer a useful asset-class label and that 99.9% of coins other than Bitcoin and ETH are worthless; Jonah agreed while noting that specific projects could still do well.
Jonah called DOT effectively worthless and cited its $5.5 billion fully diluted valuation; Avi agreed and noted that shorting it cost 30% annually. Their discussion highlighted the difficulty of value shorting in crypto: tokens do not file for bankruptcy, and carrying costs can overwhelm a correct long-term thesis. Avi therefore preferred mean-reversion shorts after absurd pumps to long-duration value shorts.

The King Of Retail: Trading Crypto Cycles | Ansem Solana's End Game with Anatoly Yakovenko